By Asif Haroon Raja
Afghanistan can be rated as one of the most resilient and robust country in the world when judged in the back drop of its past record. It had been invaded thrice by the erstwhile super power of its time Great Britain and each time it failed to subjugate it. Former Soviet Union tried its luck and after keeping it under its occupation for ten years it had to disgorge it after suffering a humiliating defeat.
The sole super power is currently feverishly engaged in subduing Afghanistan and despite having employed its full combat power for the last seven years it has failed to convert it into a permanent satellite state to serve its long-term objectives. Each time the country was invaded and occupied; the people rose up in arms and kept fighting the invaders relentlessly oblivious of the human and material losses suffered and the physical hardships they bore.
While fighting the 160000 strong Soviet forces and over 100000 Afghan Militia, over one million Mujahideen lost their lives and that number wounded or maimed for life. The Afghanis are fighting the US, NATO and Afghan National Army with the same zeal and fervour and after seven years of uneven match, the invaders having all the tactical and operational advantages to their advantage have finally come to the conclusion that insurgency in Afghanistan cannot be put down through use of force.
Taking a leaf out of the tried out divide and rule policy of the British during it’s hey days, the US had applied this formula in October 2001 by breaking the nexus between the Taliban led regime in Kabul and Pakistan. This was achieved at a time when the two neighbours were enjoying excellent relations and shared the concept of mutually advantageous strategic depth.
Having made Pakistan its ally and frontline state, it became easier for USA to occupy Afghanistan. After occupying Afghanistan in November 2001, the US then went about creating ethnic divisions within Afghanistan by marginalising predominant Pashtuns and imposing non-Pashtun regime on Afghanistan.
It tried to woo moderate Taliban but failed. After seven years of sustained operations security situation has gone from bad to worse. The year 2008 proved to be most costly for foreign troops in terms of human losses suffered at the hands of the Taliban. In order to hide its failures, USA and NATO held Pakistan responsible for its woes and declared FATA as the hub-centre of terrorism. Pak army and the ISI were accused of colluding with the Taliban and the army not doing enough to control militancy in restive FATA.
When Pak army redoubled its efforts by mounting full-fledged operations in several restive areas and produced fruitful results, it made the position of US troops in Afghanistan more embarrassing. Pakistan also made its position clear that not only its army had rendered much more sacrifices than any other country involved in war on terror, it had taken a lot more elaborate defensive arrangements on ground by way of high force level and establishment of 1100 posts all along the troubled border as against only 200 posts on other side of the border.
Feeling cornered, the US military was left with no other option but to make liberal use of its pilot-less planes to hit so-called suspected targets within FATA. The purpose is to disrupt peace deals between Pak army and the militants, create chaotic conditions in FATA, make the task of the army more difficult, and also to show to the world that it is doing a lot to fight the menace of terrorism. RAW and RAM agents with full connivance of CIA have already created a mess in FATA by creating far too many militant groups that are engaged in carrying out acts of sabotage and subversion to create a civil war like situation. While the menace of foreign agents has to some extent been contained because of strong military action in Bajaur and Swat, no remedy has so far been found against the nuisance of drones.
The US and NATO military commanders who till recent were riding on a high horse have suddenly become pessimistic and some have given demoralising statements. It seems that they have begun to see the obtaining ground realities more objectively and have realised that victory through use of force is not possible. They have appreciated that the Afghan Taliban have become too formidable a force and cannot be defeated militarily.
This realisation has impelled both Karzai and US leaders to think of means other than instrument of military to turn the tide of war in their favour.
Some of the factors they assume have contributed towards their failures and rising strength of the Taliban are as follows:
• Denial of share in power to the Pashtuns based on their numerical strength has impelled them to close ranks and support the Taliban.
• Build up of nexus between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
• Availability of safe sanctuaries to the militants along the Pak-Afghan border.
• Provision of shelter, logistics and human shields by the locals of eastern and southern Afghanistan.
• Safe sanctuaries in FATA to the militants for recruitment and recoupment.
• Insufficient troop level to effectively combat insurgency.
• Lack of coordination among the US and other allied troops in Afghanistan.
• Afghanistan has turned into a narcotics state, which is now producing about 90% of the world opium; besides others the Taliban are making good use of opium money to fund their insurgency.
In the wake of continuously deteriorating security situation, the planners in Kabul have brought certain changes in the manner in which the war on terror will be conducted in the future.
USA wants Pakistan to follow the dictates of modified strategy. The salient features of the revised concept are as under:
• Float an impression that USA is not entirely in favour of using force against the militants but is desirous of finding an amicable political settlement to the lingering Afghan imbroglio.
• War on terror fought in Afghanistan and Pakistan is not American war.
• Divide the militants between two categories of reconcilable and irreconcilable.
• Make efforts to win over reconcilable by offering handsome rewards.
• Form peace Jirgas comprising pro-US elements to impress upon the militants to surrender arms.
• Expedite efforts to weaken and isolate the irreconcilable.
• Hunt and assassinate anti-US and pro-Pakistan clerics, notables and Maliks on both sides of the border.
• Disrupt peace Jirgas made up of anti-US and pro-government elements.
• Continue launching Predator missile attacks in FATA to kill anti-US militants and leaders to disrupt peace deals, create chaos and make the task of our military that much difficult.
• Rope in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in its efforts to woo the moderate elements among the Afghan Taliban.
• Isolate the Taliban faction that insist on departure of foreign troops as a pre-condition for dialogue and pamper the faction that favour dialogue without any pre-condition to arrive at a political settlement.
• Form lashkars from within reconcilable, train, arm and fund them and use them in frontline to combat irreconcilable.
• Launch a well orchestrated propaganda campaign against the Al-Qaeda asserting that it was for them that the Taliban lost their rule and got the country devastated.
• Impress upon the Taliban that while they fought for the freedom of their own country, the Al-Qaeda had an international agenda which was impractical and fanciful.
• Convince the Taliban that it will be in the interest of Afghanis to sever ties with Al-Qaeda which is now at the receiving end in Iraq.
• Break the nexus between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Having achieved this, destroy them piecemeal.
• Enhance the force level of US troops by shifting two to three brigades from Iraq.
• Scare Pakistan regime to death that the Taliban are on the verge of capturing power.
• Exert maximum economic, military and diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to make it look the other way to all sorts of offensive acts by US troops in Fata and tow its agenda.
• Induct 150000 Indian military in Afghanistan starting mid 2009 to be able to take on frontline duties in conjunction with Afghan Militia. The US and NATO troops to provide backup support only.
Most of the aspects are already being implemented by our rulers in one way or the other. Fight against terrorism is a strategic deception and a smoke screen behind which several tactical objectives are being achieved by our so-called friends. Offer of olive branch to the Mulla Omar led Taliban has been made on the basis of Saudi Arabia?s feedback that it is prone to dialogue and is ready to break alliance with Al-Qaeda.
Based on this information, CIA-RAW-RAM-Mossad are busy drawing cleavages between the two Taliban factions led by Omar and Mansoor Dadullah and to pitch them against each other and also sever their ties with Al-Qaeda. So far the wish is far-fetched since the Taliban have made their talks conditional to withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan and are in no mood to bid adieu to Al-Qaeda. Similar division is sought within the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Lashkar-i-Islam and armed lashkars are sponsored to confront the TTP that has been banned.
Although the new US leadership in Washington is not expected to bring any fundamental change in its overall policy, however, economic melt down when seen in context with prohibitive cost being incurred on two fronts would certainly put brakes on its ambitions and jingoism. Obama will have to work extra hard to repair the badly bruised image and economy of USA.
Asif Haroon Raja is Rawalpindi based defence and political analyst.
- Asian Tribune -
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