Brig. Asif Haroon Raja
The war-ravaged Somalia situated in the volatile Horn of Africa is a scene of infighting since 1991, when warlords overthrew Siad Barre and then clashed with each other. Autocratic Siad had ruled the country effectively and kept it united. The two warlords Farah Adid and Ali Mehdi controlling south and north Somalia respectively fought for power till as late as 2005. The country has been torn apart by clan-based warring faction leaders and militias and hundreds of thousands have been killed in the senseless conflict.
The Islamists led by Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) took over power in June 2006 and restored peace and normalcy. Peace was however shattered by the invasion of Ethiopian military in December 2006 at the nudging of USA and the Islamists toppled.. From 2007 onwards, infighting between warlords escalated and worsened when the Islamists began a resistance movement to oust foreign troops.
Mired in civil war, the country is now at a dangerous crossroads with little hope for return to peaceful conditions. This is in spite of employment of peacekeeping forces of some neighbouring African countries. The country has been without a national government since 1991 and is regarded as a failed state. During this period 13 transitional governments were formed and the current one is the 14th.. The Islamic insurgency has gained phenomenal strength and controls most part of the country. The Islamic militants have sidelined the government which is veering towards collapse. Sea piracy off the Somalia coast has added a new dimension to the turmoil.
The feuding came to a head when the autocratic Somali President Abdullahi Yusaf elected in November 2004 unilaterally dismissed Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein and appointed Mohammad Mahmud Guled in his place in November 2008 to head Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The country’s parliament refused to approve the change and voted to keep Hussein in his post. The US and neighbouring countries too condemned the dismissal since the international community had approved the reformist agenda of Hussein attempting to develop a rapprochement with Islamists engaged in insurgency. Kenya announced sanctions against Yusaf saying he was an obstacle to peace since he had thwarted every peace proposal. Amidst the uncertainty and fog as to which was the legal PM, Guled decided to put in his resignation and thus put an end to reigning confusion.. However, when his departure could not improve the security situation chances, Yusaf resigned on 29 December 2008 and gave his charge to Speaker of the parliament and acting president Madobe.
A parliament meeting was planned in Djibouti on 26 January 2009 in which the new president was expected to be elected and the parliament enlarged by inducting 200 new members of moderate Islamists belonging to opposition. The purpose was to form a unity government and to isolate the hard-line Islamists led by Al-Shabab.
However, with the fall of Baidoa on 26 January 2008 soon after the departure of Ethiopian towns, which was the stronghold and seat of parliament, the TFG rule has got confined to Mogadishu only. It is tottering and may collapse anytime unless external support comes to its rescue. Such a support would also be a temporary reprieve and not a lasting solution. It had thus far mainly survived because of the heavy support of neighbouring countries particularly Ethiopia and African Union peacekeeping force. Leader of United Islamic Courts (UIC) Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed based in Asmara and known as a moderate Islamists has now been appointed as the new president and Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke as prime minister in a desperate bid to form a unity government.
In this study I will dwell upon the key actors in Somalia since I have already dilated on other aspects of Somalia’s history in my earlier study.
Population of Somalia
Somalia has a population of 10 million and over 80% is Muslim. Although 85% of the population is Somali, their society is based on separate clans – or family. There are four major clans; Hawyie, Ishaak, Darod and Rahawein, each with a number of sub clans and branches, that make up 84% of the Somali population. The Dir and Digilare two minor clans that combined make up 10% of the Somali population. Numerous smaller clans and ethnic minorities exist throughout Somalia dwelling in localized communities rather than defined areas, particularly along the rivers and coast. This clan demographic formed the basis of government’s 4.5 power-sharing formula. In this, each of the four major Somali clans would have equal representation and the minor clans would have half of it. Alliances between clans and sub clans are based on mutual advantage and are transitory.
Competition between major clans is for power and resources rather than political ideology. Where one region is dominated by one clan, as in Somaliland with the Ishaak or Puntland with the Darod,relative peace exists. Clan boundaries transcend artificial geographic boundaries hence Somali clans can be found in Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. Each clan is led by the ShuraCouncil which provides the political governance of the clan. This council is made up of clan elders, businessmen, women’s groups and youth groups. The next level is the Courts that contain influential Sheiks and Imams. These courts provide the rule of law within the clan and advice to the Shura Council. The Court’s law is policed by the clan’s militia. Although the predominant religion in Somalia is Islam, the Courts do not enforce Sharia Law as the majority of Somalis are moderate Muslims.
Protagonists within Somalia
Clan Friction. Friction presently exists between the Darod and Ishaak over border disputes between Somaliland and Puntland, in particular the Sanaag and Sool regions. Since the Hawyie clan toppled Said Barrie’s predominantly Darod regime in 1991, tensions between the two clans have been very high. The TFG stated that the fighting in Mogadishu was aimed at eradicating extremist Islamic groups such as Al Shabaab who are the UIC militia drawn mainly from the Hawyie - Habr Gedir - Ary sub clan. However, open media sources suggest that the fighting was between the Darod clan led by President Yusuf and the Hawyie clan for control of the lucrative ports in Mogadishu and Kismayo.
Tensions were high in Kismayo where the Majertain sub clan militia of former President Yusuf's Darod clan had been pushed out of the city in April 2008 by the Marehan sub clan, also of the Darod clan. Capture of Kismayo by Al-Shabab forces in August 2008 and their harsh actions against the Sheikhs belonging to Ahl al-Sunnah wa al-Jamaa group have made this group resentful. This situation clearly indicates the fluidity of clan alliances and highlights potential clan factions within the TFG which could undermine the effectiveness of any Somali government of national unity if power sharing is not well balanced. Other flash points include Galkayo which borders the clan boundaries between the Darod and Hawyie.
Factions and Extremist Groups.
Although difficult to determine precisely who the TFG considers ‘extremist groups’, few have been identified.
• Al Shabab. Perhaps the largest and most publicised group, the Shabab are the militia that supported the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). The group is led by Adan Hashi Ayro, who was said to have been trained in Afghanistan and was among the people listed by the US as a terrorist. He was killed in April 2008. Mukhtar Timolji who took over from him was also killed in December last during the battle of Guri Ceel. The Al-Shabab militia is made up of youths aged between 20 and 30 years, who are said to be extremists and the ones who fought at the front-line when the UIC clashed with their opponents such as the defeated Anti-Terrorism Alliance to which a number of prominent warlords belonged. The members of the Al-Shabab group are mostly uneducated youth engaged mainly in guarding their leaders. They are reported to have been trained for special operations and are backed by groups of Mogadishu businessmen (Ayr sub clan) who were strongly opposed to the defeated warlords.
• Al Shabab’s objectives are to revive the UIC in Somalia and draw other sub clans to their cause, assisted in part by the heavy handed action of the EAF, and the belief that the conflict is between the Darodand Hawyie clans. They are armed with small arms, RPG-7 and mortars allegedly provided by Eritrea. Although they are reported to possess surface to air missiles, it is difficult to verify as the air casualties thus far could have been caused by RPG. After capturing Baidoa, Al-Shabab has emerged as the strongest group in Somalia.
• The Popular Resistance Movement (PRM). The PRM is an Islamist resistance movement which developed after the UIC were defeated by the TFG. The group is lead by Sheikh Abdikadir, who has been featured on Islamic web sites promising to destroy commercial aircraft using Mogadishu airport and attacks against all foreign troops, including peacekeepers. They have claimed responsibility for a number of murders and shooting down an IL76 aircraft at Mogadishu.
• The Young Mujahideen Movement in Somalia. It is the latest group to conduct operations in Somalia. It is believed they are linked to Al-Qaeda and share a website used by Islamic Militants in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia. The group claimed in an Internet statement that its fighters detonated a car bomb near an Ethiopian military convoy in the Somali capital, destroying two trucks and allegedly killing some 30 Ethiopian soldiers. They claimed responsibility for the 3 June 2007 car bomb attack at former Prime Minister Gedi’s residence resulting in seven body guards killed and 10 injured. This group appears to possess bomb making technology indicating that they may be receiving support from Al-Qaeda.
• Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia-Asmara (ARS-A). It is Eritrea supported.
• Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia-Djibouti (ARS-D). It is Djibouti supported.
• Ahl al-Sunnah wa al-Jamaa group.
• The Anti Terrorism Alliance. Known as Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT), it was a Somali alliance created by various warlords and businesspeople. The alliance included Botan Ise Alin, Mohammed Dheere (the newly appointed Mayor of Mogadishu), Mohamed Qanyare, Musa Sudi Yalahow, Nuur Daqle, Abdi Hasan, Awale Qeybdiid (the newly appointed Police Commissioner), Omar Muhamoud Finnish and others. Some of them were ministers in the TFG of Somalia. The ARPCT was a secular group believed to be funded by the US CIA, due to concerns the UIC had links to Al-Qaeda and were believed to be harboring Al-Qaeda members.
• The International Crisis Group, which had direct contacts with the warlords, said in June 2006 that the CIA was funneling $100,000 to $150,000 a month to the ARPCT. Although the Alliance is now defunct, the members are still influential in the community.
• Others. There are a significant number of freelance militia, warlord militia, criminal elements, Jihadists and foreign fighters who operate independent of any clan or organization. Their motivations for fighting can range from money through to religious ideals.
Key Actors in Somali imbroglio
Ethiopia Ogaden island of Somalia bordering Ethiopia and rich in minerals is in control of Ethiopian troops. Like rest of Somalia, Ogaden is also Muslim majority. Impelled by USA, Ethiopia decided to pump in a large contingent of force into Somalia to bolster the tottering regime of TFG led by a warlord Abdullahi Yusaf. It was keen to see a stable but weak Somalia with a friendly government that could control the radical Somali and foreign elements who assault their borders. Addis Ababa fosters good relations with the US, who see Ethiopia as a staunch, African ally in their regional war on terror.
Ethiopia’s motivations for assisting the TFG included:
a. Removing the UIC’s threat to re-unite the Somali people in the Ogaden Valley into a united Greater Somalia.
b. Pressure from external actors to prevent Somalia from being used as a safe haven for terrorist training activities.
c. Preventing Somalia from becoming an Islamic Theocracy.
d. Access to a friendly port facility as Ethiopia is presently forced to use Djibouti or Eritrean ports that charge extortionate prices to export their coffee and import goods.
Ethiopian armed forces invaded Somalia in December 2006 at the instigation of USA and routed the UIC led Islamic regime. Out of total of 18,000 troops, 10,000 Ethiopian troops got stationed in Mogadishu and the rest in Baidoa. Addis Ababa believed that Asmara supported and reinforced the UIC remnants in Mogadishu in order to tie up the Ethiopian troops in Somalia and fight a proxy war that extends from the border tensions between them. Its relations with Eritrea are strained because of latter’s support to the UIC and the Ogaden Liberation Front (OLF). Oppressive policies pursued by Ethiopian troops during their two-year stay in Somalia radicalised a large number of Somalis who joined Islamic militant forces.
Departure of Ethiopian troops on 26 January 2009 enabled the Islamists to capture Baidoa. Mogadishu too has become vulnerable to Islamic insurgents. Presence of Islamists in Baidoa, which borders Ethiopia, would remain a source of concern for Ethiopian regime.
Probable takeover of Somalia by Islamists would pose a danger to Ogaden, where call for Greater Somalia has been voiced. It would become a major source of irritant for Ethiopia.
Eritrea. Apart from supporting the enemy of their enemy Ethiopia, Eritrea believes that Somalia should be free of foreign intervention and has called upon Uganda to remove their peacekeeping force from Mogadishu. It believes Somalia should be free to address its own issues and it withdrew from the Inter Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in protest of the group’s active support of Ethiopian intervention. Eritrea presently hosts various Somali factional leaders, sacked members of the Somali Parliament, and UIC supporters and leadership.
Notwithstanding its enmity with Ethiopia, it is not in Eritrea’s interests to see a stable Somalia as their ports of Assab and Massawa would be operating in direct competition to those in Somalia. Eritrea is believed to have smuggled tonnes of arms, ammunition and supplies into Somalia as well as foreign fighters and training teams, ostensibly to support the UIC and other anti-Ethiopian groups.
Djibouti. Although Djibouti does not appear to overtly support any party in Somalia, it is likewise not in their interests to encourage stability that would create competition to its port activities. Djibouti is accused of breaking the arms embargo which they vehemently deny. However, they are believed to have assisted in the passage of arms and supplies through their ports and across their borders. While Somaliland retains a relatively stable border with Djibouti, it is assessed they will remain neutral to the situation in Somalia by neither supporting the peace process nor overtly destabilising it.
Kenya. It is home to more than 215,000 Somali refugees and acts as the base of all UN and international NGO operations in Somalia. Since late December 2006, Kenya’s border with Somalia has been closed in an attempt to stop UIC fighters from escaping the Ethiopian troops and TFG actions. However, by barring entry to their country they have caused a significant humanitarian crisis for thousands of displaced persons. Nairobi recognises the TFG as a legitimate government thus allowing them to expel Somali refugees. Kenya is supporting the aid effort into Somalia and has allowed the AU to use Mombassa as a mounting base to launch Ugandan heavy equipment by sea for AMISOM. Kenya also provided the convoy escort for the Ugandan cargo ship carrying their heavy equipment to Mogadishu. As their border with Somalia is very porous, arms and drug smuggling occurs frequently.
Yemen. Somalia’s closest Arab neighbour, Yemen is home to thousands of Somali refugees who have made the perilous trip across the Gulf of Aden to escape 16 years of fighting. Yemen seems to support the UIC and have provided safe haven to some of the ousted UIC leadership. Yemen is implicated in arms smuggling into Somalia in support of all parties to the conflict. Yemen wants a stable, Islamic Somalia who can control piracy in the Gulf of Aden thereby improving trade security. Yemen would also like to repatriate the Somali refugees.
USA. There is a widely held perception among the people of Somalia and neighbouring countries that Somalia had deliberately been destabilised by USA because of its economic interests in Ogaden which is rich in oil and diamonds and has top-class uranium deposits. Both diamonds and uranium are being regularly extracted by USA and certain western countries from this region, which has been forcefully made part of western friendly Ethiopia, while Somalia remains engulfed in internal war with no letup.
- Asian Tribune -
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