By Asif Haroon Raja
For the last 17 years Somalia is ripped apart by anarchy, violence and famine. Since the ouster of President Siad Barre in 1991, the country has not had a proper functioning democratic government. 14 transitional governments have come and gone but the situation remains abysmal. Peace was restored in the war-torn Somalia for the first time when Islamic Courts Union (ICU) led Islamists under Sheikh Sharif Ahmed defeated the warlords and took over the reins of power in June 2006. All Islamist factions were unified and the regime achieved commendable results.
The six month rule of ICU was the only peaceful tenure Somalia has witnessed during its entire turbulent history. Peace was however disturbed by US motivated Ethiopian offensive in December 2006 forcing the members of UIC to flee and take refuge in neighboring African countries. ICU leader Sheikh Sharif took shelter in Asmara.
The invasion sparked a rebellion by Islamist insurgents. The Islamists not only fought foreign and government troops but also within themselves. In the last two years of infighting, over 16000 civilians have been killed and one million people uprooted. 3500 African Union (AU) peacekeepers are based in Mogadishu. After the departure of Ethiopian troops from Mogadishu and Baidoa in January 2009, unless the strength of AU is further beefed up, Mogadishu would be taken over by hard-line Al-Shabab Islamists and rule of ICU re-established. The Islamists are keen to impose Sharia in Somalia.
The Islamic insurgency has been gaining strength and the Islamists now control most of southern and central Somalia including Kismayo and Baidoa, the third and second largest cities of Somalia as well as the coastal belt from Kenyan border up to Marka port and sizeable presence in Gedo and Galgudud provinces. Several Islamic groups are operating in Somalia but the largest and strongest faction is Al-Shabab which has turned the tide in its favour as a result of series of victories it achieved during the second half of 2008. Its leader Adan Hashi Ayro who was declared as a terrorist by USA was killed in April 2008. Likewise, Al-Shabab has been branded a terrorist outfit.. The group supports ICU and aspires to revive it in Somalia.
The situation has become more favorable for them after the departure of Ethiopian troops supporting the government. Government troops now only control pockets of the capital of Mogadishu. The UN has resigned and ruled out sending a peacekeeping force. The AU contingent is confined to guarding critical points like capital’s seaport, airport and main government buildings.
Other Islamic groups operating in Somalia that had emerged in 2007 in the wake of Ethiopian invasion are Popular Resistance Group (PRM) led by Sheikh Abdikader, Ogaden Liberation Front (OLF) under Sheikh Hassan Abdullah Hersi al-Turki and Young Mujahideen Movement in Somalia. Bloody operations launched by Ethiopian troops during their two-year stay in Somalia had radicalized many Somalis who joined Islamic groups. Eritrea, Sudan and Yemen support the Islamists.
Until mid 2008, Al-Shabab fighting tactics revolved on hit and run guerrilla warfare and at no stage it tried to hold captured territory. It achieved its first major breakthrough on 22 August when its militia under the command of Mukhtar Robow (alias Mansur) and in conjunction with OLF seized the third largest city Kismayo. From that time onwards, the strategy was changed from guerrilla to conventional form of warfare. Since Al-Shabab members are followers of Wahabi school of thought and are against Sufism, which in their view is heretical, they started arresting Sheikhs belonging to Ahl al-Sunnah wa al-Jamaa group which has heavy presence and strong influence in Kismayo. Some of the Sufis tombs were also destroyed. These unwarranted actions alienated Ogaden clan members and the Sufis.
Emboldened by their success in Kismayo, Al-Shabab militia then carried out detailed planning of capturing port city of Marka. After killing three high officials governing the city through a remote-controlled bomb on 28 October, they launched a three-pronged attack on the city from multiple directions on 12 November using only 200 fighters and succeeded in defeating the local militia that had no heart to confront the attackers. Impetus of momentum was maintained and soon after another coastal city of Baraawe was over run on 15 November. Seizure of this city enabled Al-Shabab to effectively control coastline from the Kenyan border to Marka. Loss of Marka angered the Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia-Asmara (ARS-A) since the city had remained under the control of its allies.
The ARS-A had split into two factions, one under Sheikh Sharif comprising moderates and the other under Sheikh Hassan based in Eritrea. In early December, Al-Shabab made impressive territorial gains in Gedo and Galgudud provinces; however, it failed to capture Guri Ceel in Galgudud on 8 December essentially because of the marrying up of Ayr clan and Ahl al-Sunnah wa al-Jamaa militias and others aligned with ARS-A at the behest of external powers. Still, by the close of the year Al-Shabab had achieved superiority of strategic orientation and was better poised to take over Somalia. The TFG Parliament has been forced to abandon Somalia and take refuge in neighboring Djibouti.
Till this time, Al-Shabab under Hayakalah had not come into direct clash with TFG forces or its chief ally the Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia-Djibouti (ARS-D). The two got closer after the resignation of President Yusaf on 29 December who was against reconciliation with Islamists, especially ARS-D. With Abgal clan drawing nearer to ARS-D, it became difficult for Al-Shabab to operate in Abgel controlled areas of central Somalia, particularly Hiraan Valley.
Baidoa which had been the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) stronghold and seat of parliament was captured by Al-Shabab on 26 January 2009. The Islamists moved in just hours after Ethiopian troops departed from the town. They first took over the parliament and the airport and then dashed towards the home of acting president. On 27th they introduced Shariat in Baidoa and told the people that they will rule by Islamic law. They have vowed to introduce Shariat throughout the country. Quick victory was possible as a result of vacuum created by the departing Ethiopian troops who were the mainstay for the western backed Somalia government, which is now restricted to Mogadishu only. However, even this capital city is under daily attacks from the insurgents.
Rapidly deteriorating security situation put the planned meeting of the parliament in Djibouti in the last week of January to elect a new president and to expand the parliament by inducting 200 moderate Islamists and to form a unity government into jeopardy. Al-Shabab rejected Djibouti talks and Islamists are massing onto the capital Mogadishu and getting ready to seize control of Somalia for the second time. Al-shabab doesn’t recognize TFG government and has forced its parliament to meet outside thecountry in Djibouti. The TFG wields some contolin Mogadishu only and that too because of presnce of African Union (AU) peacekeeping troops. Resort to unrestrained firing by AU troops on the demonstrators in Mogadishu for the first time in early February 2009 and killing hundreds have added to the woes of the TFG and further undermined its position which is otherwise seen as a stooge of USA.
In the meanwhile, the TFG parliament in exile in Djibouti elected Sheikh Sharif Ahmed as the new president on 31 January. Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke has been elected by 414 legislators of TFG on 14 February. Both are reputed to be moderate Muslim and have been elected essentially to confront the Islamic challenge posed by Al-Shabab led hardliners. Appointment of Sharif has reportedly not been welcomed by Al-Qaeda and he has been threatened not to accept it under TFG arrangement.
Al-Shabab does not recognize TFG government, and its leaders denounce Sharif as a traitor. A day after the arrival of President Sharif to war-wracked Mogadishu armed Islamist insurgents ambushed government troops in the capital city on 24 February killing 14 people. It was not clear whether ambush was laid by Al-Shabab Islamists or Hizb-e-Islamiya which is also anti-government. Earlier on, a suicide bomber rammed his explosive laden vehicle on a camp of Burundi peacekeeping troops on 22 February killing 11 soldiers and wounding 50 including civilians. This was the deadliest attack since peacekeepers were deployed two years ago. This was probably in reaction to indiscriminate firing by AU troops in early February on the demonstrators killing civilians in hundreds.
USA fears that the Islamic insurgency is linked to Al-Qaeda and has expressed its usual fears that Somalia could be a terrorist breeding ground. It accuses Al-Shabab of harboring the Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists who blew up the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. The Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group has urged USA to reconsider its counter terrorism strategy in Somalia by making it more balanced and consider removing individuals and groups from its terrorism lists in exchange for a constructive role in the UN-sponsored peace process. Humanitarian conditions are pathetic and around 9 million people are on the verge of starvation.
In the backdrop of change in policies as indicated by Obama led Administration, it is now to be seen whether US would still opt to isolate extremists, pitch moderates against extremists, nudge AU and UN to send additional troops to prevent takeover by Islamists and let Somalia bathe in blood; or it opt for a more rational and just policy in line with the aspiration of the Somalis. It is also to be seen how Sharif-Omar duo tackle the situation.
Sea-piracy along Somalia Coast
Sea-piracy in Gulf of Aden off Somalia Coast has added a new dimension to infighting in Somalia. There have been 124 incidents of piracy off Somalia in 2008 and 60 successful hijacks. A total of 42 ships have been hijacked and nearly 240 crewmen and 14 ships are still being held hostage along the coast including Ukrainian ship, Turkish ship and Chinese vessel. Rampant piracy has earned the buccaneers millions of dollars in ransom. Saudi super tanker Sirius Star with 2 million barrels of oil worth $100 million and 25-member crew heading towards Somali port of Eyl was released on 10 January after paying ransom but the pirates carrying the $3 million ransom in a boat got drowned. On the same day another cargo ship belonging to Iran carrying 30,000 tons of wheat was also released. It had been captured on 18 November off Somalia coast in Gulf of Aden when it was moving towards port Bandar Abbas from Hong Kong.
The daring incidents of sea-piracy in quick succession has stunned US high command and other oil-dependent nations and has forced many countries to change route from Suez Canal to send their ships around the southern Africa. UNSC took a serious note and authorised strong action against the pirates. The EU launched an anti-piracy operation in second week of December 2008 with warships and aircraft from USA, Russia, UK, France, Greece, Spain and China. Indian naval ships too joined the fray but succeeded only in sinking a fishing trawler with 16 crewmen on 18 November. German warship foiled a hijack attempt on Egyptian bulk carrier on 25 December. The pirates freed Japanese bulk carrier with 21 crewmen in January which they had seized in October. In 2008, the pirates attacked 111 ships and seized 42 off horn of Africa.
On 15 January two Chinese warships and an Indian submarine reportedly faced off during an anti-piracy mission off coast of Somalia in the waters near Bab Al-Mandab Strait. The Indian sub stalked the Chinese warships and they were locked in a tense standoff for about half an hour. The stand off ended when Indian vessel left without further confrontation. EU task force has now taken over the responsibility of patrolling off the Horn of Africa from NATO ships. Japan has ordered its navy to prepare for employment off Somalia coast. A flotilla of 14 ships has been assembled to confront the challenge. Lately, Japan has also ordered its two warships to join the anti-piracy force. It will be for the first time that Japan would be venturing for an armed mission after 2nd World War. Neighbors of Somalia are keen to see stability return in Somalia and sea-piracy brought under control by the government.
What is happening in strategic Horn of Africa is not a simple case of piracy. The pirates believed to be numbering 1200 former fishermen and coast guards, mostly from Somalia prey on a key maritime route leading to Suez Canal. They are getting bolder, wilier and richer. It raises many questions about the capabilities and equipment of outlaws operating in deep sea, numbering not more than 1200, who are seeking ransom. Massive ransoms have brought rapid development to former fishing villages off Somalia coast. Estimates are that over $150 million booty has been collected by the pirates till end 2008 and many among them own beachside hotels. There is something more than what the eye could see. Analysts are openly accusing Israel of sponsoring piracy off Somalia waters with the aim of transforming Red Sea into a Jewish lake. The immediate objective of USA, Israel and European countries is to prevent the inflow of arms to Islamist Al-Shabab that is on the verge of snatching power in Somalia and to steal Arab oil. Sea piracy has been blown up into a big threat to oil supplies to the west, Japan, China and others in order to internationalize the issue. Internationalization of security in Red Sea is being done under the pretext of fighting piracy to safeguard critical seal lanes and choke point of Suez Canal with the help of a combined multi-national naval force.
Over 14 countries have already joined the counter-piracy force. Sooner than later, Israel would be asked to take control of this flotilla because of its easy access to the area of concern and its acquired skills to deal with terrorism. The idea is to deprive Arabs dominance in the Red Sea and to control Suez Canal. Yemen, Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, Saudi Arabia and Israel bordering Red Sea are faced with danger of their exclusive domain coming under the dominance of external powers. While Pacific Ocean and Mediterranean Sea are already under US and European domination, Indian Navy is gradually expanding its presence in Indian Ocean as a medium naval in Indian Ocean with the active assistance of USA. Conversion of Red Sea into Jewish lake would allow USA domination of almost whole of Asia, Middle East and Africa. Considering Indo-Israeli-US alignment, this will have grave ramifications on geo-economics for all the littoral states of Red Sea and Indian Ocean.
Asif Haroon Raja is a researcher. This is his third report on Somalia.
- Asian Tribune -
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