By Asif Haroon Raja
David Kilcullen, a specialist on war on terror and an advisor to Centcom chief Gen David Petraeus has given air to the old story of collapse of Pakistan as is being predicted by Jewish controlled western think tanks with vested interests. Various scenarios based on Indian inputs have already been circulated but most writers gave the cut out date as 2015, while some have scaled it down to 2010. The gloomy pictures range from balkanization into quasi states to truncation of Pakistan.
The redrawn map of South Asia reduces Pakistan to an elongated sliver of land with the big bulk of India to the east and enlarged Afghanistan to the west. In another map attached with an article written by Ralph Peters titled ‘Blood Borders: how better Middle East would look’, Baluchistan has been shown an independent state. Kilcullen has taken the lead over others by asserting that Pakistan could collapse within one to six months. Going by his wise assessment the countdown has started and people in Pakistan should be running helter-skelter.
The reasons propounded by him to arrive at such a bizarre conclusion is that Pakistan is overpopulated with 173 million people, is nuclear having 100 nuclear weapons, its army is bigger than the US army, two-thirds of the country is under Al-Qaeda control, the military, intelligence agencies and police are out of control of the civilian government and last but not least there is global financial crunch.
Wild assessments are hurled in frustration whenever the ulterior designs of the gang of four based in Kabul get disrupted and offset the laid down timed game plan to dismember Pakistan. He has not come out with anything new on which Pakistanis should get startled and frightened to death but has drum beaten the hackneyed themes already propagated by US think tanks since 2005. It indicates their mindset and sinister designs against a sovereign state. Let us dispassionately examine his assertions point wise on which he has evolved his freakish opinion.
One, population growth is not confined to Pakistan only but is a global phenomenon, particularly the developing world. In the backdrop of population explosion and shrinking resources, it is worth mentioning that two-thirds of world resources are gobbled up by the developed world in which USA is in the lead and only one-third is consumed by the developing and under developed worlds.. This dichotomy of inequitable distribution of resources is one of the root causes of ongoing frustration, despondency and extremism among the oppressed.
Two, Pakistan is not the only nuclear country but was the last to acquire it in 1998 and that too in response to Indian nuclear tests. Its nuclear capability is very modest and at the lowest rung of ladder when compared with all other nuclear powers including India and Israel. Unlike other nuclear states that have imperialistic mindsets and expansionist and hegemonic designs, Pakistan military strategy is defensive in nature and it strictly maintains minimum nuclear deterrence to safeguard its integrity. It has no dispute with any of its neighbor. Kashmir dispute which is a bone of contention between India and Pakistan since 1947 has been recognized by the UN and the formula for its resolution has been specified in several UN Resolutions six decades ago. But for its nuclear capability, India by now would have opted for the third round with Pakistan.
Three, It is surprising as to why the size of Pakistan army has suddenly become a problem area, which in Kilcullen view is a cause of destabilization rather than stabilization for Pakistan. To say that Pak army is bigger than US army is true to the extent of manpower only, which means nothing. While China stands at number one position with 1600,000 personnel, the next in the ladder is India having 1100,000 soldiers. Pakistan is 5th with 550000 men and USA is sixth with 477800 men. Otherwise in the normal ranking USA army stands first followed by China, Germany and India. Pakistan stands at 10th position. Qualitatively Pakistan stands no where compared to USA while Indian army outmatches Pak army both quantitatively and qualitatively. The hidden agenda behind Kilcullen’s out of place comparison is to downsize Pak army radically and convert it into a counter insurgency force as in the case of Iraqi army.
Four, Having played up superfluous issues of population, nuclear weapons and the army, he comes out with his real worry of Al-Qaeda threat. In his jaundiced view, it is headquartered in two-thirds of the country where the government writ is absent. This may be true for Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and North Africa where Al-Qaeda has a strong presence but certainly not in Pakistan. It is the only country which has nabbed hundreds of Al-Qaeda high value leaders and operatives and handed over to USA. If Kilcullen is mixing up Al-Qaeda with the local Taliban, it speaks of his naivety and lack of knowledge. The situation in FATA and Swat was turbulent until mid February, but after successful military operations and inking of peace deals in Swat and Bajaur, the situation has been brought well under control and the army has tipped the scales in its favor. It is this stabilization which in actuality has caused anxiety and worry to the plot makers. Return of peace though still tenuous has poured cold water on their plan, which in their assessment had reached advanced stage.
Among several methods conceived to destabilize and denuclearize Pakistan, one was to pitch Pak army against its own people, fix it in deliberately stoked trouble spots of Baluchistan, FATA and Swat and to lower its image in the eyes of Pakistani public. The conspirators suffered a setback in Baluchistan where huge investment was made by CIA, FBI, MI-6, RAW and RAM to create anarchic conditions from 2005 onwards. Although the insurgents are still being funded and equipped by foreign agencies based in Afghanistan and leadership of Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) stationed in Helmand is patronized, the high intensity insurgency has been scaled down to low intensity and most of foreign funded training camps in interior Baluchistan destroyed. The Frontier Corps is successfully managing the affairs without the support of the army. Work on Gwadar Port is continuing although at a slow pace because of killing of few Chinese engineers by foreign agents and the contract transferred from Chinese firm to US sponsored Singapore firm.
As a consequence to reversal in Baluchistan, the enemies in the garb of friends turned their ire towards FATA and Swat and inflamed it. Covert means plus drone attacks and ground attacks in FATA were intensified to keep the areas of interest volatile. Any effort towards normalcy through peace deals was thwarted. With the return of relative calm, US now intends to re-ignite Baluchistan by declaring that certain areas in that region have become hideouts of Taliban and Al-Qaeda. This card is being played to justify drone attacks. Al-Qaeda has become a ready-made excuse and a mobile commodity which is conveniently plunked within the area of interest. The so-called Frankenstein monster is the brainchild of CIA which was created and nurtured to defeat the Soviets and later on to justify invasion of Afghanistan. It was shifted to Iraq and has now been shifted to Pakistan. I
f it is a reality and not a myth, the monster has pounced upon its creators. The faceless monster doesn’t fix itself to one place but keeps roving from place to place to confuse and tire out its chasers. It strikes wherever and whenever it encounters a weak spot. USA having spread its military bases all over the globe to protect its economic and geo-strategic interests is vulnerable and presents soft targets to prowling Al-Qaeda operatives. It will be biggest mistake on part of Washington to hinge its future strategy on the tunnel-vision concept that main concentration of Al-Qaeda is housed in certain parts of Pakistan. This is exactly what the Al-Qaeda leadership wants USA to believe and to shift its centre of gravity towards that region. Since the US army is short of troops, and the Nato is unwilling to provide additional troops, it is left with no choice but to transfer forces from Iraq which is still explosive. It will be naïve to assume that all is well on Iraqi front and local Iraqi forces would be able to handle the security challenges at their own.
After failing to achieve their specific objectives through manufactured Mumbai attacks and 3/3 attack in Lahore, India has intensified its campaign to brand Pakistan a failing state. Peace in Bajaur and Swat and relative calm in other trouble spots has set the clock back at a time when the new strategy of dealing with the militants is about to be launched. Political turmoil leading to long march was also not to their liking since disqualification of Sharif brothers and Governor Rule in Punjab had the tacit blessing of Washington. In the presence of Shahbaz led ministry in Punjab the plan to carryout drone attacks in southern Punjab and to pulverize religious madrassas with the aim of destabilising Punjab was not possible. Unexpected turn of events vexed the schemers and reluctantly had to accept the ground reality. Return of chief justice Iftikhar and possibility of Sharif brothers returning to corridors of power has also impeded their program of getting Pakistan declared as a failed state. In the wake of changing political scenario, India has modified its stance by asserting that Pakistan is a dysfunctional state and is fast heading towards a failing state.
Five, The Pakistan military, ISI and the police were doing a fine job as long as they were playing US dictated game through Musharraf under the misplaced impression that the US was on its side and genuinely fighting war on terror. Once these institutions found out that the US in collaboration with other agencies was playing a double game and had dangerous designs against Pakistan, they became cautious and watchful and started to protect national interests instead of protecting US interests. This is not withstanding that Pakistan is still committed to war on terror.
This slight change in not abiding to US dictates blindly and extending whole-hearted cooperation to CIA consternated Washington. Instead of saying that these institutions are out of control of Washington, they argue that they are not in control of government. They make this allegation despite the hard fact that the government has no complaint against the military, ISI and police and civil-military relations are harmonious.
Six, with regard to global meltdown, it is USA and not Pakistan which is most affected. Factually, Pakistan economy instead of going down has begun to steady. US economic system based on capitalism and corporate governance is on the verge of collapse because of its cumulative debts, ever-increasing deficit and interest on that debt. Other reasons for an economic meltdown in USA are soaring energy costs and expensive war on terror. The US is running on treasury bonds.
In my reckoning, coming elections in Afghanistan in August this year are being taken in real seriousness by Obama Administration. It is keen to remove the glaring weaknesses in the political system by possibly changing Karzai with a more acceptable leader and introducing post of prime minister. The Pashtun belt will be tapped and its hostility mollified by offering attractive incentives in the form of development work, greater job opportunities and power sharing. Pakistan had played an important role in the last elections and it is expected of it to do so again. Taking into account the upsurge in militant activity in most parts of Afghanistan, stabilization of security situation is crucial to hold elections. Induction of 17000 additional US troops from Iraq into Afghanistan in the immediate timeframe is aimed at ensuring security in most volatile southern and southeastern regions of Afghanistan.
Pakistan is neither a Banana State nor a house of cards as perceived by its adversaries that it would crumble under the weight of propaganda assaults. Pakistan has weathered massive storms throughout its history, both homemade and mostly foreign made. It has become adept in facing onerous challenges and will brave the coming storm brewed up by the gang of four. The armed forces are in fighting spirits, the nuclear deterrence is intact, the judiciary has been given a shot in the arm, political reconciliation is in the pipeline, the trouble spots are relatively much quiet and calm and economy is on its road to recovery. This doesn’t mean that everything is hunky-dory; there are enormous challenges to tackle which are common to all developing countries.
So what is troubling Mr. Kilcullen and why is he so pessimistic and poignant? Are his concerns out of malice to mar the happiness of the people of Pakistan who are still celebrating the reinstatement of chief justice Iftikhar, or for the well-being of Pakistan, or he has floated the balloon of gloom with a sinister purpose to spread despondency? Whatever causation he has listed to justify his ludicrous assessment are very much applicable to India, which is the real epicentre of terrorism. Why he gets tongue tied to point out the internal vulnerabilities of India which have not been stoked by any of its neighbors but cropped up due to mal treatment of other religious minorities at the hands of Hindu extremists and security forces? Does he not know that Indian army has turned into a rogue army after its links with terrorists were established? Kilcullen needs to have a proper medical check and those who listen to his crap attentively. He is advised to keep his harebrained idea to his self since none other than the adversaries of Pakistan would buy it.
By the way, India in its newspaper ‘hindunow’ in an article titled ‘Pakistan diabolical plan’ has claimed that the ISI has circulated two maps to destabilize India. It adds, by 2012 it intends to turn Mumbai into Muslimabad and by 2020 converts North India into Islamic Republic of Pakistan, leaving South India as disputed country. This farcical write-up has been purposely published to hide its devious intentions. It is India and not Pakistan which in sheep’s clothing is all out to harm Pakistan.
Asif Haroon Raja is a security and defence analyst based in Rawalpindi.
- Asian Tribune -
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