By Asian Tribune Correspondent, Farzana Shah, From Pakistan
On March 27th US President Barak Obama announced new plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan after a lengthy consultation with members of his cabinet, military commanders, department of defense and representatives of Afghanistan and Pakistani governments.
"It has been more than seven years since the Taliban was removed from power, yet war rages on, and insurgents control parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan." Said Mr. Obama in his opening statement
What is new in this plan? How applicable it is? Can US/NATO win in Afghanistan and region with this new plan? It is worth to dig little into this plan before analyzing all possible outcomes of this plan for region in general and for Pakistan in particular.
President Obama’s announcement has three key areas;
For Pakistan : A proposal for a major increase in US aid to Pakistani civilian government has been announced. Pakistan will receive $7.5 billion in aid in the next 5 years, if the bill is approved in the US congress. US President will endorse a Senate bill for this aid, originally drafted by Sens. John Kerry and Richard Lugar. This is the sweetest part of the proposed bill but the bitter part is Pakistan will have to show measurable improvements in its internal efforts to combat terrorism and militancy.
Development of Reconstruction Opportunity Zone (ROZs) is also the part of plan on Pakistani side of Pak- Afghan border, mainly comprising restive FATA area through a separate bipartisan bill.
For Afghanistan: 4000 more troops will be send to Afghanistan in addition to 170,00 already committed by US as announced last month by President Obama. These 4000 troops will be deployed as instructors for the Afghan national army. US has a target of training of 130,000 troops for Afghan national army and some 80,000 personnel in national police. Hundreds of civilian experts will be dispatched to Afghanistan to bolster reconstruction and tackle the opium trade. CIA claimed that Taliban get billion of dollars from opium trade so it is critical to eradicate the cultivation on Afghan soil.
For the Region: Mr. Obama was very hopeful to constitute a new "contact-group" comprising on Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, China and central Asia to help US and NATO to achieve their objectives in Afghanistan.
One thing is clear form his speech and above mentioned recommendations in his plan that US and NATO are not comfortable in Afghanistan. The year 2008 was a nightmare for invaders in Afghanistan. Overall US and NATO have lost some 700 troops so far in conflict with Taliban.
Both Afghanistan and Pakistani governments have welcomed the plan and new strategy of President Obama to fight terrorism in Afghan-Pak border region which include development work along with military use.
But all this is just one side of the affair;iIn coming months governments in Pakistan and Afghanistan will have to heed more to US demands in order to get US aid and to avoid the label of a failed state. Pakistan in this case will have to make some more very unpopular decisions in this war on terror as the country is currently in the middle of economical spin-hole partly due to international recession and mainly due to mismanagement by public office holders. Otherwise both governments will have to face severe pressure from US if they follow some policy in global war on terror which is no inline with US plan. Pakistan observed immense pressure and criticism after peace deal with militant in the restive Swat valley. Though peace is prevailing in Swat, but US media and administrations along with some experts in Pakistan are still skeptical about this deal.
To further study this plan in context of Pakistani security situation, it is important to have a look at what Mr. Obama said in this regard.
New US Plan and Pakistan National Security
According to new assessment made by US intelligence and military commanders in Afghanistan and Pakistan is part of the problem along with Afghanistan rather than part of solution (MNNA and Front line State in WoT as declared by Bush administration) and it is clear from following excerpt from Obama’s speech.
"The future of Afghanistan is inextricably linked to the future of its neighbor, Pakistan. In the nearly eight years since 9/11, al Qaeda and its extremist allies have moved across the border to the remote areas of the Pakistani frontier. This almost certainly includes al Qaeda's leadership: Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. They have used this mountainous terrain as a safe-haven to hide, train terrorists, communicate with followers, plot attacks, and send fighters to support the insurgency in Afghanistan. For the American people, this border region has become the most dangerous place in the world."
"But this is not simply an American problem - far from it. It is, instead, an international security challenge of the highest order. Terrorist attacks in London and Bali were tied to al Qaeda and its allies in Pakistan, as were attacks in North Africa and the Middle East, in Islamabad and Kabul. If there is a major attack on an Asian, European, or African city, it - too - is likely to have ties to al Qaeda's leadership in Pakistan. The safety of people around the world is at stake."
Despite the lack of any evidence, US is certain that Pakistan is key to the problem rather than Afghanistan harboring terrorists from all over the world. Pakistan itself has been biggest victim of terrorism in the recent history. More than 120,000 regular army and other paramilitary forces are busy in fighting in with Al-Qaeda and Taliban militant cadres. More than 1300 security forces personnel have given their lives in this gory war. Pakistan is leading contributor in WoT, but due to submissive policies and weak foreign diplomacy Pakistan, has to bear blame of save heaven for terrorists. US media has been advocating this theory since long, and now official circles have joined this in Washington as well. It clearly means one thing for Pakistan: "Do More".
It is also clear that US is making its intentions clear now about what Pakistan will have to do in order to get a “Terrorist Free State” certificate from US. Pakistan will have to eradicate Al-Qaeda and Taliban leadership as they are on Pakistani soil as per US assessments. This is an uphill task for security forces in Pakistan as there is no clear evidence is available that the said terrorists are in Pakistan and never Al-Qaeda or Taliban claimed so. Pakistan, after Obama’s speech, is in the middle of a cross road where it will have to decide whether to opt for its own national security policy announced in October last or pursue US agenda which will be fatal for all efforts for peace in Swat, Bajur or any other region.
Challenges for New Plan
For this new strategy to be successful in the region the burden is on US shoulders.
No matter how good this plan looks to anyone, it is going to meet some very hard to overcome challenges in every country included in this very plan. Challenges for this plan start right from US. Formalities like passing bills will take considerable time to accomplish. Another such step is to form ROZ (Reconstruction Opportunity Zone). This proposal is not new at all. Former US president Gorge W. Bush presented this plan in his visit to Pakistan back in 2005, but bill for these zones was presented in US congress only in this month, after the lapse of some 4 years.
Other than slow and complex US bureaucratic procedures US and all other concerned stakeholders will have to cater some issues specific to each country.
In Pakistan: Biggest threat in Pakistan for this plan to be foiled is corruption, mismanagement and a grim law and order situation in the country. First two issues can be solved by taking strict administrative measures, while implementing this plan in Pakistan, but law and order situation will be a real hurdle in a way. Situation in FATA is fast turning hostile for US and Pakistan as CIA has upped the frequency of its drone attacks in the region which tribal and masses consider as attack on their houses and country. If CIA has planned more attacks on FATA, which are apparent, then this new strategy is already dead even before its birth. Pakistani security forces are also facing tough resistance from militants in the area. Infrastructure is biggest and easiest target for militants so without engaging the tribesmen and improving law and order situation in region thinking about establishing industries is next to impossible.
US is apposing peace deals signed by Pakistan with local militants in order to bring peace in the area of conflicts. Recently in Bajur such deal is signed and earlier in Swat a peace deal was signed. In the past, US spoiled such deals by killing the militant leaders who signed peace deal with Pakistani security forces. US must understand that ROZs can only be established after talking to local militants and making them partner in this process. To achieve that, US will have to stop its drone attacks, which are not proving effective enough against Al-Qaeda.
In Afghanistan: Afghanistan has no better conditions to offer to new plan to succeed. Corruption, warlord culture, drug trade and fragile law and order are some big task at hand for Karzai government which, over the years, has failed miserably to solve any of these issues. In such situation a plan calling for development and economic growth and stability is mere dream. President Obama himself pointed out a way to tackle corruption in Afghanistan
“And I want to be clear: we cannot turn a blind eye to the corruption that causes Afghans to lose faith in their own leaders. Instead, we will seek a new compact with the Afghan government that cracks down on corrupt behavior, and sets clear benchmarks for international assistance so that it is used to provide for the needs of the Afghan people.”, Said President Obama.
Agricultural specialists and educators; engineers and lawyers are major groups of civilian experts who will come along with troops from US. Again all of them need institutions of their own to work which are no where established outside Kabul in the last 7 years. In the absence of these institutions these experts will not able to bring any visible change in Afghan society as imagined by Obama in his speech.
In the Region: Geopolitical importance of Afghan - Pak has made this region a major battle ground for world super powers to grab. Geopolitical location of Afghan-Pak is at the same time region’s biggest strength and biggest weakness as well. US is very desperate to get its feet firmly in the central Asia and key lies in Afghan-Pak and its enabling routes to trading corridors connecting Central Asia to Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.
Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, India and Iran all have very different national agenda. Pakistan and China are partners in developing Gawader port hence exploit geopolitical benefits by further developing the area. Iran is worried by Gawader and consider as a big economical and business challenge for its own ports. Recent incidents of militants of Jindullah attacking Iranian security forces from Balushitan, Pakistan have proved fatal for Pak-Iran relations. India is worried about energy and curtailing both Pakistan and China’s economic growth as both are India’s competitors in the international trade market and does not want Gawader to be a successful endeavor by Pakistan and China. In this complex environment, where each state is pursuing its own agenda, it is against next to impossible to form a “contact group” to help yet another country (US) to succeed by combining their efforts.
This has been the biggest failure on the part of previous and current US administrations, both failed to realize the natural affiliations of states like Pakistan, China and India to their interests. US want to get results by sidelining legitimate security, economical and geopolitical interests of Pakistan fully and of all other countries to some extent.
Pakistan has raised issues like Indian meddling into Pakistan from Afghanistan in front of US administration many times, but no satisfactory action was taken by previous or current US administration in this regard. Pakistan tried to follow the agenda which can serve its own agenda by signing peace deals with local militants which is something not acceptable to Washington. After failing to pressurize Pakistan further now US has found a new ally in region and it is Iran. It will be interesting to see if Iran can make any useful contribution into Obama’s new plan. Despite the current exchange of warm wishes to each other by Obama and Ahmadi Nijjad, both countries have to go a long way before they can contribute anything fruitful to region.
Opportunities for New Plan
Every plan has two aspects, after looking at some of the challenges for new plan to be succeed there are some opportunities as well.
US administration will have to create these opportunities by taking some basic steps which are missing since beginning of this war;
Winning Heart of the People: This has been the biggest failure of US since it invaded Afghanistan. US will have to stop bombing on civilian population. Afghan President Karzai has protested about such attacks and same is true for other side of border i.e. in FATA, Pakistan. US will have to cut drone attacks in FATA and must increase intelligence sharing.
Solving Disputes in the Region: Kashmir is a major issue in this world today. Due to this single issue lives of more than 1.5 billion people are at stake. Decades old dispute must has to be resolved now and US in this regard has a major responsibility to use its diplomatic influence in UN and world to force India to solve this dispute as per Kashmiri’s demands under existing UN resolutions.
Equal Treatment with Allies: Not getting its interests protected in Afghanistan is a biggest complaint Pakistan has with US. Pakistan is facing terrorism and support for this terrorism from Afghanistan where US has responsibility to control infiltration into Pakistan by Uzbik and Tajik terrorists. US will also have to heed to Pakistani demand regarding suspicious activities by Indian consulates on Afghan soil.
US will have to revise its policy about drone attacks in Pakistan as soon as possible as these are proving an axe for relations between Pakistan and US at every level. Public sentiments are high against these attacks, so US must stop these attacks as they are producing more and more terrorists by pushing local victims of these attacks on Al-Qaeda’s camp. These very terrorists will create mayhem for Pakistani society later on.
Keep the Back Door Open: People in the region have this feeling that US invaded Afghanistan to capture its territory. US president announced the withdrawal from Iraq by 2011, but no such plan is given for Afghan - Pak. US must make people believe that it is here just in hunt of Al-Qaeda under UNO mandate and will leave the area to the people once the task is completed.
Conclusion
Although new strategy looks fine on paper, but as it is discussed above, it is going to see some serious implementation challenges. Trust deficit among partners in war on terror is the biggest problem for US. It will have to take some measures to bridge that gap, especially between Pakistan and US, Pakistan and India and Pakistan and Afghanistan. This can only be achieved by giving some serious thoughts on Pakistani point of view in war on terror.
If US insist with current policy in Afghanistan, then Pakistan will have no option except to say good bye to the international war on terror, just to protect its own interests as it was recommended in national security resolution passed by parliament in October 2008.
- Asian Tribune -
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