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Asian Tribune is published by World Institute For Asian Studies|Powered by WIAS Vol. 12 No. 2397

Prabhakaran is stuck in his own mess

Colombo, 02 October, (Asiantribune.com): Political analysts and even the Karuna Group agree that by launching Eelam War IV Velupillai Prabhakaran has painted himself into a corner and does not know how to get out of it. Analysts are expecting him to hit out with his last available weapon: suicide bombers.As a last resort analysts expect V. Prabhakaran to hit out in a dramatic fashion to make an impact and regain the momentum he lost in launching Eelam War IV.As a last resort analysts expect V. Prabhakaran to hit out in a dramatic fashion to make an impact and regain the momentum he lost in launching Eelam War IV.

One other option is to go to talks. But here too he is stymied. The Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) has laid down three conditions

1. a specific time frame should be provided by the LTTE to resume and conclude peace talks;

2. the LTTE should give an assurance to the international community and Donor Co-chairs of the peace process that it will not use sea routes to smuggle into Sri Lanka any military hardware and

3. the LTTE should make a commitment that it would not resort to any violence during the period of the talks.

Analysts also point out that the new turn of events has put him on the defensive. His offensives have not turned out to be what he expected. Of late he has been more on the defensive than on the offensive. But analysts say that it would be a big gamble for him to go on the offensive and lose more cadres without any successes to boost the morale of the Tamil Diaspora financing him.

With both sides sniping at each other intermittently it is unlikely that peace talks will begin shortly. Since Prabhakaran has lost the upper hand in dictating terms for peace talks it is also doubtful whether the Norwegians can make a breakthrough.

As a last resort analysts expect Prabhakaran to hit out in a dramatic fashion to make an impact and regain the momentum he lost in launching Eelam War IV. Analysts expect him to target a prominent figure in the GoSL. Col. Karuna has told the Sunday Times that Pottu Amman is spending sleepless night trying his level best to get a big fish. If the LTTE succeeds it may boost the morale temporarily but in the long term it will have to face the wrath of the Security Forces which will go all out to attack key LTTE targets in Killinochchi and elsewhere.

In the meantime, GoSL is seeking guarantees from the LTTE supreme before any talks could begin.

Anura Priyadharshana Yapa Cabinet Spokesman and the Media Ministert said on last Friday "The Government was always open for negotiations but they must receive a genuine commitment from the Tiger leader."

Defence spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella said it is mandatory for the LTTE to return to talks with an honest and clear policy.

Minister Rambukwella said that several points were made to Norway, the facilitator after the Brussels meeting. The government gave them the opportunity to go to Kilinochchi and get the assurance for a clear, honest and workable programme. Attention should be diverted to the conditions placed by the government.

Main among them is that persons such as Tamilselvan, Elilan and Pottu Amman had deviated from their statements two hours after making them and they are not prepared to talk to them. Several examples can be cited in this respect. Before the Brussels meeting they said there were no conditions, but included conditions after the meeting.

Another example cited by Mr. Rambukwella was the rejection of the Oslo talks in July after arrangements were finalised. He said an assurance from Prabhakaran is important to the Sri Lankan government, the Co-chairs, the facilitators and the world community on the talks. Thereafter, decisions will have to be taken in respect of the date and venue of talks Government emphasizes it is not ready to talk with Taamilselvan.

- Asian Tribune -

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