A US delegation led by Under-Secretary of State Mr Kurt Campbell and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Scot Marciel has made a visit to Burma. In order to grasp and consider the situation during the visit, I will present some inside stories.
Though it is said that US sanctions have never been effective, there were and are instances of their considerable impact. In the early days of American sanctions even when they were not stringent enough, an SPDC managing director wrote to the Burmese Embassy in Washington to help past US Customs blockage for Ministry of Industry-1's garment exports and other goods in 2000.
However, then Ambassador U Tin Win remarked, "A viper at rest is dangerous if provoked. So we have to be discreet not to touch it," and put the matter aside. At that time U Tin Win was General Khin Nyunt's close follower so that Industry-1 Minister U Aung Thaung dared not push the matter up.
In 2001 May, after U Tin Win was replaced with Ambassador U Linn Myaing, Minister U Aung Thaung personally made another demand to the new ambassador. Therefore U Linn Myaing had to take the matter up and made his embassy staff pursue the case. Only then the American officials became aware and surprised of the heap of goods labeled Made in Myanmar in Customs warehouses, resulting in complete prohibition (as U Tin Win had predicted).
After the 2003, Depayin massacre, the US imposed harsher economic sanctions which caused blockage of money transfers from Singapore to Burmese embassies in US dollars so that embassy staff received no salaries for a couple of months after which the US eased sanctions on some conditions.
Moreover problems arose in payment for 122 mm guns, missiles and radars ordered from Russia and Ukraine for the purpose of expansion of air defense facilities. Bosses of military-owned Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd. (UMEHL) and Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC), Quartermaster-General, Director of Military Procurement and officials from Central Bank held an emergency meeting at the War Office and hotly looked for an alternative route by asking Gen. Than Shwe for permission to use Euro for exchange.
Purchase of weapons and equipment procured through a multi-tier of brokers and dealers became procrastinated and more costly. Targeted sanctions directly affected dictators' families, cronies and affiliated businessmen. Merchants and businessmen realized that their losses were due to military dictators. Dictators' families have to move their money away from Singapore to Dubai hastily.
The worst thing for SPDC was their inability to obtain visas for senior-level colonels and higher-ups to travel to Europe. This restriction of movement is particularly irritating for them because at the least they could not go shopping or sight-seeing to squander their booty.
Afterward Gen. Than Shwe put all the blame on democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, taking up this blame strategy as a weapon. In the past, at a tri-annual top brass meeting, Gen. Than Shwe has always said that US sanctions were not to be concerned, loopholes need to be found out, and that as an ASEAN member they need to exploit China, India and ASEAN countries (by luring them with economic incentives) through border crossings. Nevertheless at the War Office tri-annual meetings after 2003, Gen. Than Shwe's tone changed.
He described his strategy thus, "We should masquerade Aung San Suu Kyi as an underling of US and the West. We must exaggerate impoverishment of workers caused by unemployment after closure of garment factories in Hlaing Thaya Industrial Zone due to US sanctions, and spread this in media. We need to wage psy-war to make the people hate America and Aung San Suu Kyi. Look at her speeches! You never hear of her opposing Western sanctions. So she seems to be pleased in private with the sanctions. We have to present her as a willing accomplice."
After that directive, the regime waged psy-war through Kyemon, Myanmar Alin, radio and TV with commentaries and news photos. An obvious strategic assault was Gen. Than Shwe's unilateral demand upon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to call for removal of sanctions if she wishes to conduct dialogue, thereby prompting the people to misunderstand her.
In reality economic decline and livelihood difficulties in the country are caused by SPDC despots' mismanagement, unrestrained pursuit of self-interest, monopoly of everything, failure of its agriculture and farm-mechanization projects, miscalculation of GDP, corruption, over-expansion of military strength and military's control of economy through UMEHL, MEC, etc.
The SPDC's worst conspiracy is its evil strategy to automatically character-assassinate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi with its usual labels like American lackey, stooge or axe-handle even if the US partially removed the sanctions on her request for the sake of the people.
Nevertheless, depending on SPDC's conditions, the US might not impose sanctions however much she demands or might not remove them however much she requests to do so. Gen. Than Shwe is merely covering up junta's responsibility in the failure of its 20-year economic plan and livelihood breakdown by blaming US economic sanctions.
Moreover, the SPDC is approaching the US because it wants to strategically balance China's power with regard to the UWSA. The US has also said that Burma, unlike North Korea, should be handled with care. Hence the US delegation to Burma and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi particularly need to think up a strategy in advance to deal with the highly crafty SPDC.
Bo Htet Min is a former Burma Army regiment commander who defected to the people's side a couple of years ago. The piece was translated from Burmese to English by Gamanii - a writer.
- Asian Tribune -
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