Spurious Claims and Real Agendas

That the Rajapakse administration is concerned about its continuity is clear to the naked eye and the naked ear, in the visages and words of its key stakeholders. The election, which, with Ranil Wickremesinghe, would have been a one horse race, has become transformed into a close run battle with the entry of Sarath Fonseka.

Mahinda Rajapakse may yet win this election, especially given his absolute command over all the recourses of the Lankan state (and his unstinting willingness to abuse these to ensure his re-election). But the unexpected injection of an element of uncertainty into an election which the regime was expecting to win effortlessly seems to have thrown the Rajapakses (and their coterie) off-balance, making them react in a knee-jerk manner reeking of inane short-sightedness.

“They fancy themselves to be gods and that the World was made for their Sakes”.
Erasmus (Family Discourse – Colloquies I)

The best case in point is the assertion, made by the Attorney General, that there is no threat to the life of Gen. Fonseka, when the latter’s petition for extra security was taken up by the Supreme Court. According to media reports, the AG has presented a security assessment to the Court to this effect. There is a sense of déjà vu in this, because the regime made an identical contention based on a similar security assessment when another retired General, Janaka Perera, went to court seeking security. When Gen. Perera was killed by a Tiger suicide bomber, a sincere government would have questioned the very basis of its threat assessments.

The absence of such a revaluation indicates that the partisan manner in which the regime provides security is deliberate and not accidental.

When the regime acted in a spirit of petty vengefulness, depriving Janaka Perera of security (thereby making him vulnerable to the revenge of the Tiger), Sarath Fonseka was a favourite of the Rajapakses and, consequently, the possessor of substantial power, perks and privileges.

Since the thought that he could be served the same fare someday obviously did not occur to him, he made no demur about this iniquitous act. Today he knows better. If anything highlights the crucial importance of de-politicising the state structure, at least minimally, this is it - if a country has rendered itself incapable of making an objective, non-partisan threat assessment, it is a sign that her vital institutions have become dysfunctional due to excessive politicisation. The full and speedy implementation of the 17th Amendment becomes even more necessary in this context, to protect at least a part of the state from these political vagaries.

An Enslaved State

In Sri Lanka, the state has become totally subservient to the regime and thus to the Ruling Family. The politicisation of the state and the abuse of state powers and resources by the government of the day for partisan political and personal purposes are not alien to Sri Lanka.

But under the Rajapakses, every line of demarcation between the state and the Ruling Party and Family has been deliberately and consciously erased. The state is thus totally geared towards fulfilling the needs of the Ruling Party and Family, especially during election time. This prevents key areas of the state, from security and finance to education and health, from functioning even with a modicum of normalcy during election time. The resources of state institutions are abused for political purposes with impunity and in plain sight, causing their near total malfunctioning.

The travails facing the health sector is a case in point. According to media reports, the H1N1 influenza (commonly known as the swine flu) is spreading at an alarming rate in some parts of Sri Lanka. However, apart from closing down schools and universities, the government seems to be doing very little to arrest the spread of this deadly epidemic. Again, according to media reports, it will take another month for the inoculations for H1N1 to reach Sri Lanka. In the meantime the illness is spreading, patients are dying and hospital employees are refusing to work because they have not been provided with basic safety measures, such as face masks.

A responsible regime would announce a state of emergency, work urgently to stop the spread of the disease and move speedily to get the inoculations. But the regime is showing a total lack of concern about this emerging health crisis. There are innumerable health ministers, national and provincial, cabinet and non-cabinet, but all of them are too busy electioneering to pay attention to the issue. Nor is the opposition raising this issue in any way. According to another media report, the Maharagama Cancer hospital lacks 20 life saving drugs – a critical situation by any standards, but a matter of no importance to our rulers. This echoing silence about the multiple crises in the health sector is proof positive that for Lankan politicians (of whatever hue including the ones without any hue) the wellbeing of the voters is a matter of near total indifference.

The crisis in the educational system is no less dire. Again there are innumerable education ministers and ministries at every level, but preparing a text book or an exam paper without errors seems to be a task beyond politicians and officials alike. Here too the degree of politicisation has plumbed ludicrous depths, best evidenced by the media reports of the reverential treatment accorded to First Son Namal Rajapakse when he went to sit for the First Year exam at the Law College; a special cubicle was set aside for him and the principal himself kept him company as he answered the question papers. If true, this lawless conduct of a once august institution bodes very ill for the future of Sri Lanka.

A state that is enslaved to a personality, a party or a family, as the Lankan state is, is incapable of acting in the best interests of either the country or the people. The outlook of such a state would be narrow and petty because dominant ethos equates the country with the Rulers. Such a state would give precedence to the partisan political interests of the rulers over and above issues which are vital to the people, such as education and health, thereby endangering the very future of the country. After all, a country with a dysfunctional education system and a dysfunctional and health system is likely to produce future citizens who are ill conditioned to meet the challenges awaiting them, both as individuals and as a collective.

The Rajapakses held provincial council elections on a staggered basis for partisan political needs, forcing the country had to pay an exorbitant cost, not only in terms of money but also in terms of lost time, neglect, inefficiency and error. Periodic elections are a vital need for a healthy and a functioning democracy; but endless unseasonal electioneering is a sign of a weak and immature democracy. And the Rajapakses are abusing the electoral system in this manner because they want to perpetuate their power by winning a two-thirds majority in parliament.

Even the early presidential election is geared towards achieving his overarching objective. The plan was to win a magnificent victory against a weak Ranil Wickremesinghe and to go for a parliamentary election on that strength. The Fonseka candidacy has thrown a spanner in the wheels of the Rajapakse triumphal chariot; thus the shrill invectives and the infantile overreactions. The Fonseka candidacy is also having a (temporarily) moderating influence on the Rajapakses, since the regime is forced to woo the electorate (including the Tamils) – which would have been unnecessary had Ranil Wickremesinghe been the candidate. But these positive outcomes are merely conjectural and will be rolled back if Mahinda Rajapakse wins the election outright.

Dangers, Imaginary and Real

The danger of a dictatorship is real but it is a civilian rather than a military dictatorship that may be in store for Sri Lanka. If Mahinda Rajapakse wins, Sri Lanka can become saddled with a Family dictatorship, the fundaments of which are already in place. Under Rajapakse rule, a process of concentrating all effective power in the hands of the Ruling Family came into being.

This process of empowering the family has been accompanied by a parallel and corresponding process of disempowering everyone else, from elected representatives and state officials to the ruling SLFP (note that the recent SLFP convention was turned into an extravaganza celebrating the Rajapakses). Under a Rajapakse Presidency this process of empowering the Family at the expense of everyone else will continue, though a non-outright victory at the Presidential election for Mr. Rajapakse and a marginal victory at the parliamentary election for the UPFA may lessen the potency and toxicity of this process.

Sarath Fonseka is not contesting the election as Army Commander; nor is he mounting a coup or a rebellion against a democratic leadership. He is retired from the Army and is contesting the election as a civilian; consequently his challenge to the Rajapakses is neither unconstitutional nor anti-democratic. The claim that a Fonseka victory would be tantamount to the creation of a military dictatorship is nothing but a lie and a hypocritical one at that coming from an administration which deliberately overstepped the boundary line between politics and the military and permitted the Army Commander to dabble in politics by making incendiary remarks about sensitive political issues. The second most powerful man in the Rajapakse administration is a retired Colonel. The Rajapakses have appointed retired military men to key positions across the state, as Governors and ministry secretaries, diplomats and corporation chairmen. The ruling party has a policy of giving nominations to former soldiers at local and national elections.

None of this turned Sri Lanka into a military dictatorship, anymore than a Fonseka victory would, because retired military men are civilians and their elevation does not change the essential character of the regime.

Sarath Fonseka has proven, on more than one occasion, that he is not a mere cipher of the opposition parities backing him, and that he is very much his own man with his own agenda. He is also on record telling the media that he would not be a ceremonial president but will wield some power in order fulfil his election promises. Given the man’s past conduct and present utterances, the common sense conclusion is that the UNP, the JVP and Mangala Samaraweera will have very little control over Mr. Fonseka, if he wins the Presidency. This presents a clear danger which needs to be understood. Given the endemic weakness of the opposition, the Fonseka candidacy may be a necessary gamble, but it is a very dangerous gamble which can backfire not just on the opposition but on the entire country with the explosive power of a volcano.

Just as Mahinda Rajapakse turned against the very entities (and personalities) which enabled his victory, so can Sarath Fonseka. The attack on state media personnel during the UNP convention demonstrates that intolerance is not the sole prerogative of the regime but is a living force within the opposition as well. If Gen. Fonseka wins the presidency, the state media will become his organs and the non-state media (including the ones which are supporting him currently) can find themselves at the wrong end of the totem pole of power, again. The trajectory of Mahinda Rajapakse, from saviour to villain, is a morality tale which should caution his erstwhile allies (at least) of the dangers of sanctifying allies and demonising opponents.

Hero-worshipping is dangerous in politics, especially in democratic politics. “What does a perfect group of followers do? It doesn’t think and it doesn’t even feel anymore…it follows”, wrote Victor Klemperer in ‘The Language of the Third Reich’. ‘Perfect followers’ are a threat to democracy because they, with their habit of unquestioning obedience and unthinking adulation, encourage the metamorphosis of imperfect democratic leaders into perfect tyrants.

- Asian Tribune -