New Delhi keenly watching Sri Lanka poll scenario

As the Presidential election fever is warming up in Sri Lanka, New Delhi is keenly watching the developments for any clear swing in favour of either of the two main candidates, President Mahinda Rajapaksa and former army chief General Sarath Fonseka .

The elections are scheduled for January 26.

Though India’s policy is not to interfere with the internal affairs of a neighbouring country, events in Sri Lanka are of special interest, in view of the presence of a large Tamil population which is yet to get over the effects of decades-long regional strife. Though the LTTE and its chief Vellupillai Prabhakaran with his close aides have been neutralized in military action, the plight of the internally displaced Tamils, numbering in lakhs, many of them in makeshift camps, exposed to vagaries of weather, lack of sufficient food and suspect in the eyes of security authorities for possible LTTE links, is a matter of concern for New Delhi. The ruling DMK and the opposition AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, along with other Tamil-friendly parties have been asking the Indian government to take up the cause of the people affected by the war operations.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and senior ministers like Pranab Mukherjee have been regularly stressing on the Rajapaksa government to quickly redress the grievances of the Tamils and bring about amity in the island. Much to his credit and understanding of the sentiments of the Tamils in India, Rajapaksa has shown magnanimity. He has outlined many measures to win back the trust and love of the Tamils. Time and again, he has underlined the war against the rebellious LTTE was not directed against the Tamil population but attempts to root out terrorism in national interest.

That the people are responsive to his logic and promises was clear from the crowds’ enthusiastic reception in Jaffna last week. Speaking in Tamil, Rajapaksa emphasized “We are all children of one mother – Mother Lanka and we all should live together, united, without showing any discrimination amongst us as Tamils, Sinhalese or Muslims. His conciliatory tone was obvious in his remarks that he was happy to speak in Jaffana and interact with Tamil brothers and sisters for the first time. He called it a memorable occasion for him to experience the love and affection of the Tamil brothers and sisters. Outlining future plans for Jaffna, the President said it will be made an IT and English education hub and all steps would be taken to boost education in the area. He also assured the people of the region all they lost to the conflict and more, other than the precious lives, would be restored to them to propel the area to greater prosperity.

New Delhi has also noted that the President was keen to ensure power-sharing through increased representation to Tamil minority in Parliament. The Tamils account for 12.5 per cent of the country’s 29 million people. Any strife in Sri Lanka has its impact on Tamil Nadu, whose ruling party, the DMK, is a loyal ally of the Manmohan Singh –led UPA government.

Talking about relations with the closest and biggest neighbour, India, Rajapaksa has told journalists that he was in close touch with New Delhi. He exuded optimism saying “As of now, they (India), I think, are with me. But India is watching.” While referring to his main rival, Sarath Fonseka, retired army chief, Rajapaksa said” I do not think India will support a military man.”

Observers of Sri Lanka poll scene feel the Presidents is not far off the mark. India has dealt with Rajapaksa for long and found him exercising utmost restraint when the ethnic conflict was going on. New Delhi could also appreciate his compulsions for a strong military offensive against the Tamil Tigers who were indulging in a violent armed struggle for a separate Tamil Eelam and not ready for talks across the table. No fault could be found in the President’s argument that he would not compromise on the unity and integrity of the nation but will ensure that the majority Sinhalese and the Tamils lived in harmony.

"The end of the war does not mean the end of the conflict," Rajapaksa has said, indicating his future intentions, adding "We need to politically address the needs of Tamils." This is seen as a positive policy statement, in line with India’s thinking that normalcy should be restored at the earliest.

In contrast, not much is known about the political acumen of rival contender, Sarath Fonseka, who is taking credit for neutralising the Tamil Tigers. Rajapaksa also is seeking a second term, two years ahead of his term, to cash in on the victory over the Tamil Tigers. Fonseka has not been much forthcoming on how he proposed to deal with the causes of the ethnic tensions. But he too has talked about the rehabilitation of the displaced Tamil population and healing the wounds of war during his campaign speeches.

If one were to compare the merits of Rajapaksa and Fonseka, the scales are clearly tilted in favour of the former. India’s experience in dealing with military rulers in uniform or civilian attire, has not been very pleasant as was seen in the case of two other neighbouring countries.

Though the verdict of a democratic exercise will be respected, it is clear that New Delhi will prefer to deal with the present, familiar incumbent in Sri Lanka than one whose political ideology is not clear.

- Asian Tribune -