Which way to the front Gen Fonseka will move - Temple Trees..? Oklahoma …? Or Prison…?

Now that all is set for the presidential election on Jan 26, the question being asked is which way the opposition candidate and former army commander Gen Fonseka will go once the results are out.

Will he go to Temple Tree, the official residence of the President, Oklahoma, his home of last resort now that he holds a US Green Card, or to prison, given the serious allegations of corruptions leveled against him?

First things first. What are the chances of his making it to the Temple Trees?

Gen Fonseka is a man with hardly 40 days experience in politics pitted against incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa who comes with 40 years of experience.

Mr Rajapaksa is the leader of one of the two established political parties in Sri Lanka.

Gen Fonseka does not have a party of his own. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party's main rival, the United National Party, has chickened out and chosen to back him. So does the Janata Vimukthi Peramuna which once promised a revolutionary change and fought the Sri Lankan armed forces twice, first during the aborted insurgency in 1971 and again during 1987-89 when it took on the avatar of ultranationalist party and dug its own grave by threatening to take on the families of security forces personnel.

Mr Rajapaksa is seeking a second term after eradicating terrorism on the promise of taking the country on the road to peace and prosperity. Gen Fonseka claims credit for crushing the LTTE. In the same breath, he is counting on LTTE proxy, the Tamil National Alliance to get him votes. IT is a different matter, what clout the TNA will have with the Tamil people now that its main prop, the LTTE, is gone.

Mr Rajapaksa has promised Tamils greater devolution of powers by implementing the 13th amendment, an offshoot of the Indo-Sri Lanka agreement which is already a part of the Constitution. He has given this promise as any other solution involving an amendment of the Constitution will need two-thirds majority which can be mustered only if the UNP and the SLFP support any such amendment. Since this is not immediately possible, he has promised 13th amendment plus which he has explained in his manifesto as creation of a senate to give greater representation to Tamils and other minorities.

Gen Fonseka does not have a clear cut plan to solve the ethnic problem. His agreement with the TNA only speaks about addressing issues of immediate concern to the Tamils like dismantling high security zones so that people displaced from them can go back home and resettlement of the Vanni Tamils uprooted in the final stages of the war. He cannot be more specific, say for instance on the re-merger of the east with the north, without the consent of the UNP and the JVP which are both dead set against it as it will cut into their base among the Sinhalese.

If the post-war provincial elections in the Sinhala areas are any indication, the triumph of the UPFA shows that the vote share of the UNP and the JVP have shrunk. Such being the case, how can Gen Fonseka hope to cross the 50 per cent vote to get elected?

He has to count on the support of the minorities, the Tamils and the Tamil-speaking Muslims. The chances of his sweeping the north and east are remote, given his own track record as a ruthless commander with scant regard for human rights. Otherwise, why should the LTTE have sent a woman to kill him?

Therefore, Gen Fonseka has more chances of losing than winning. In fact, the Government is bracing for post-election violence by his supporters, including some army deserters.

This is based on the premise that he is set to lose. An isnaldwide curfew may be clamped during the counting on Jan 27.

In the event of his defeat, will the US bail him out as it tried to do when the LTTE faced imminent destruction?

The Sri Lankan Government has already shown that, green card or no, the US cannot pressurize him to divulge what he learned during his tenure as army chief to suit its plan to call for an international investigation into war crimes allegedly committed by the forces during the final stages of the war.

Green card or no, Gen Fonseka cannot flee the country. He will have to face prosecution over serious charges of corruption leveled against him, like giving arms contract to a firm run by his US based son-in-aw.

Should he lose, he should brace himself for a spell in the cooler, unless he makes it up with Defence Secretary Gothabaya Rajapaksa who is daggers drawn.

- Asian Tribune -