2010 Presidential Election: Winners, Loosers And Those In Between

President Mahinda Rajapakse’s victory in the presidential elections on the 26th January 2010 is not only felt in Sri Lanka but through out the world. It is a resounding victory against forces of influence that have been shaping global politics for sometime.

As did the war on terror won by President Rajapakse had global impact, this victory at the polls will be seen as consolidating those gains and possibly weakening the existing hold on global politics by the northern hemisphere.

The bitter and sometimes violent campaign exposed the workings of the forces of influence that shape politics not only in Sri Lanka, but in other parts of the world. How the election campaign was shaped by Internet manipulations and injection of funds to the opposition candidate by foreign sources. Therefore, it is pertinent for the Sri Lankan voter to understand the significance of this victory, and not be influenced by the same bag of tricks in the general elections to be held soon.

‘See me on Facebook’ campaign

The reasons behind Sarath Fonseka’s desire to enter politics will be argued for sometime. Yet the retired general’s behaviour prior to declaring himself as a candidate for the presidential elections leaves many questions unanswered. His desire to travel to US and the ‘catch me if you can’ game he played with the US authorities did not help his campaign. Most telling fact is that Sarath Fonseka’s campaign for the presidency has a ‘made in USA’ tag on it.

Even if you dismiss the signs that he has received campaign funds from foreign sources, there are many similarities in the Fonseka campaign to the Barrack Obama presidential campaign.

Furthermore, the dirty tricks played via SMS, Twitter and Facebook are similar to those employed in the recent Iranian elections.

From the campaign slogan of ‘change’ to the use of the Facebook to get across to the people were borrowed from the Obama campaign. The short sighted campaign organisers did not consider that their ‘mentor’ President Obama has not delivered the change he promised and is increasingly unpopular. Neither did they realise that their ‘Common candidate’ Sarath Fonseka lacked the charisma and was no orator like Obama- in actual fact, Fonseka was a disaster on the podium and in press conferences.

When the ‘Sarath Fonseka – the next president’ Facebook message did not take off like Obama’s Facebook message, they turned on the dirty tricks. Events taking place before and after the recent Iranian elections were conducted via SMS, Facebook and Twitter. There is ample evidence of foreign influence in these events in Iran. US was keen to have the Internet connections working, and Twitter was asked by no other than the Secretary of State – Hillary Clinton to get their act together during the time of the Iranian elections. As in the Iranian elections, Internet manipulations via SMS, Facebook and Twitter took place during the Sri Lankan presidential campaign.

While the election violence that took place was influenced and instigated by Internet manipulations, and resulted in loss of life. The overall campaign of Sarath Fonseka did not benefit much from these Internet activities. The fact remains that the Fonseka campaign grossly over estimated the influence of the Internet on the Sri Lankan population. Unlike Iran, Sri Lanka has a low usage of the Internet (Iran-48.5% and Sri Lanka-5.5%). In spite of this, the Fonseka camp is still continuing to instigate his hardcore supporters to question the election results and take to the streets via Twitter and Facebook as it happened in Iran.

While the international election monitoring agencies have declared the 2010 Sri Lankan Presidential elections as fair and accepted the results. The US diplomatic mission / State Department have made statements accepting the results, but have left the door open for the Fonseka camp to instigate trouble via the court system and using the Internet to create instability. The same can be said of UN’s Ban Ki -moon. Both parties through out the Sri Lankan election campaign made various efforts to influence the outcome – including fresh attempts to conduct a war crimes investigation. Hence, the Fonseka camp continues their attempts to destabilise the nation through cries of unfair elections and bogus claims of corruption on its numerous Facebook sites.

You can’t measure a mile with a yard stick……

Various claims have been made by the foreign media, NGOs and the opposition based on the election results. The only conclusive fact is that President Rajapaksa won with a historically unprecedented majority and he has increased his support base. Considering the bitter campaign, the election results show that the people valued nation’s security and peace over false promises, and the change they desired was already there – end to war / terrorism and economic growth that could bring prosperity to the nation.

The claim that President Rajapaksa did not get the minority vote- Tamil and Muslim- is inconclusive. In the Jaffna District the total polled is 25.55% and in the Vanni District is 40.33%. With low turnover Fonseka’s policies or his agreement with the TNA does not have the ‘mandate’. The lack of participation in the elections can be due to many reasons, from election day violence to renewed fear of the return of the dreaded LTTE via the TNA – Fonseka agreement. The population is suffering from the trauma of the LTTE years, and still fear the LTTE proxy – the TNA. Therefore the results can not be blatantly interpreted as a lack of support to President Rajapaksa.

Sarath Fonseka’s lead in Digamadulla, Trincomalee and Nuwara Eliya does not mean that the President does not have the minority vote. These are districts with multi-ethnic populations.

Ballot papers are not marked as Tamil, Muslim or Singhalese. Hence in these multi-ethnic electorates votes received by Sarath Fonseka may have been significantly Singhalese votes originating from a traditional UNP support base. The Muslim vote traditionally went to the UNP and that appears to be unchanged if you take into account that Batticoloa went to Sarath Fonseka.

The election results actually show gains made by Mahinda Rajapaksa in these regions, winning a number of electoral divisions in Colombo, Putlam, Digamadulla and Trincomalee Districts.

President Rajapakse had enormous success in the districts bordering the area previously controlled by the LTTE. These voters for 30 years were subjected to most horrendous terrorist attacked and lived with the fear of being brutally butchered by the LTTE. These voters are being ignored by the foreign media, NGOs and the opposition now as they were ignored when they were subject to ethnic cleansing / genocide by the LTTE.

Ranil …who?

Ranil Wickremasignhe has been hailed as the runner up and the survivor. In 2005 presidential elections he obtained 44% of the vote and in the 2010 presidential elections Sarath Fonseka as the common candidate got only 40% of the vote in spite of the UNP, JVP, TNA and other minor parties throwing their weight behind him. Therefore it is believed that Ranil Wickremasignhe did better in 2005 than Sarath Fonseka in this presidential race.

The runner up does not get the silver medal as in the Olympics. In politics he does not even get a bronze medal. Wickremasignhe has lost significant proportion of the UNP voter base in Colombo, Putlam, Digamadulla and Trincomalee districts. He has alienated a significant section of traditional UNP voters and the power brokers within the party. Wickremasignhe may survive this crisis by running to his masters in Norway and elsewhere. Does the runner up get the price in the ‘survivor’ game? The Sri Lankan people will decide in the General Election if Ranil Wickremasignhe deserves even the consolation price.

Sri Lanka is heading towards a bright future with peace and economic growth. Even the US is changing their policy in relation to this tiny nation with a strategic geopolitical position in a rapidly changing world. They appear to have given up the regime changing attempts via their Green Card holder – Sarath Fonseka. I hope the Sri Lankan people will keep the momentum going and vote wisely in the coming General Elections.

- Asian Tribune