New Tamil alliance group, new faces may be at play in the general elections

A new political alliance is gradually taking shape in the North. It is learnt that a handful of TNA dissidents might join the TULF led by V. Anandasangaree to face the forthcoming Parliamentary General Election in Jaffna and Vanni electoral districts.

There are nine elected representatives in the Jaffna and six in the Vanni electoral districts. In the Jaffna district there are at present eight TNA elected MPs and Minister Douglas Devananda who contested in his Eelam People Democratic Party (EPDP) ticket.

Similarly in the Vanni district, of the six Members of Parliament, five of them are TNA MPs. Abdul Rishad Bathiudeen who contested in the UNP ticket, joined the Government when Mahinda Rajapaksa was elected as the President in November 2005.

In the last Presidential election, the polling was conducted based on the 2008 Electoral Register. According to the Voters Register of 2008, there are a total of 721,359 registered voters in the Jaffna electoral district and in Vanni 266, 975 voters.

On February 3, Election Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake speaking to the media persons said that the Election Secretariat was forced to use the 2008 electoral register due to a decision taken by Parliament, though the actual number of voters living in the Northern region had sharply decreased owing to the war.

He further pointed out that his officers and Chief Returning officers should not be held responsible for any discrepancy in the electoral register and the actual voters living in the region.

He said many people who had fled the country had been naturalized in many foreign countries, including India. He said that India had provided the necessary data of people living there to enable him to remove people living in India from the electoral register.

He said the actual number of voters in the Jaffna peninsula was very much lower than the figures mentioned in the electoral register.

Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake stresses the importance of carrying out a census in the Northern Province, as soon as possible, to establish the exact number of voters living there.

He says a survey will reflect the actual number of eligible voters, whereas the current electoral register is outdated.

According to political sources it is learnt that there are less than 400,000 registered voters living in Jaffna as well as in the IDP welfare centres in Menik Farm and the Muslim IDPs in the Puttalam districts.

They told Asian Tribune out of these eligible voters, less than 200,000 voters will only exercise their franchise in any forthcoming general elections.

In the last Presidential election a total of 185132 people voted. Though Sarath Fonseka led the poll in the Jaffna with 113,872 votes, however this voting to Sarath Fonseka does not reflect the votes of the TNA, but more than 25 % of the votes was anti-Rajapaksa votes only.

However Mahinda Rajapaksa polled 44,000 votes, against 1967 votes in the 2005 election, a great increase.

More than 100,000 voters have failed to exercise their votes, which is said to be a big rebuff to the TNA which boast of representing the Tamils.

It is now learnt that TNA is considering to ditch M.K.Sivajilingham MP who contested in the last Presidential election as an Independent Tamil candidate and also N. Srikantha MP who supported Sivajilingham.

Furthermore, it is learnt that the TNA MPs in Jaffna district such as Selvarajah Kajendran, Pathmini Sithamparanathan and sometimes Solomon Cyril might not be given the nomination to contest in the TNA ticket – Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchchi ticket, as they were candidate brought out by the LTTE in the 2004 April Parliamentary elections.

In the meantime Asian Tribune learnt that the TNA dissidents might contest in the ‘rising sun’ symbol of the TULF.

As it is, according to the present political situation, in the Jaffna electoral district, TNA, TULF, EPDP and UPFA would be in the fray.

According to an analyst, in the forthcoming Parliamentary General elections EPDP which intends to contest alone as it did in the last year, it might win two seats, while UPFA too would win a seat in the Jaffna district.

The balance 6 seats would be split between the TNA and TULF. There is every possibility TULF winning at least 4 seats as there will be five former TNA MPs contesting in the TULF ticket and sometimes the outfit might clean sweep the whole six seats.

As far as Vanni is concerned, there are six seats in the asking and 5 belongs to TNA and balance one at present to Minister Abdul Rishad Bathiudeen. The position of Sivananthan Kisshor is yet not known. He is either on with the Government as well as with the TNA. It is learnt that TNA might not accommodate him and also the Government side as his intentions are not clear.

According to present situation Sathasivam Kanagaratnam of the TNA supports the Government.

Therefore, S. Kanagaratnam along with Minister Abdul Rishad Bathiudeen might contest in the UPFA ticket, while PLOTE will contest on its own, and the other major party will be the TNA.
In the last Presidential election out of the 266,975 votes, a total of 107,680 voted in the election.

Sarath Fonseka who was supported by the TNA managed to poll 70,000 and Mahinda Rajapaksa who polled 17, 197 votes in the 2005 Presidential election, managed to poll 28, 740 votes in the last Presidential election.

It is anticipated that there will be a three-cornered fight and TNA might win three seats and PLOTE 1 and UPFA definitely 2 seats in the Vanni electoral district.

This is only the present political scenario and might change once the parliament is dissolved and nominations are called.

- Asian Tribune -