The Prospect of a hung parliament – Westminster’s worst nightmare

All the indications show that the stage is finally set for the next British general election, possibly on May the 6th 2010. Three main parties fight for the control of the House of Commons and then to govern the British Isles and their dependencies. According to the election law, a party must get majority of the seats if it wants to form the next government.

However, according to the latest opinion polls that spectacle seems to be unlikely, which in turn will pave the way for a hung parliament.

The recent opinion polls have been consistent; the gap between the Conservative party and Labour party has narrowed down to just 7%. The dramatic fall in the approval rate is a huge blow to the Conservative party, which enjoyed a clear margin a few months back over its main rival, the Labour party. With just two months to go, the former can’t afford to let the gap be any narrower; if it falls below 6%, the dream of the Conservatives to govern as a single party will be doomed for yet another term. Sitting in the opposition for well over a decade is not trivial.

No party in a fully-functioning democracy admits that they care for the polls. British political parties are no different. So, they put on a brave face when barrages of questions are directed at them in this regard. However, the truth is far from it, according to the seasoned policy makers and deal- makers who work behind-the-scenes to bring their respective parties to power. In fact, politicians do care for the polls, but choose not to show it in public.

In that sense, David Cameron may be a worried man and Prime Minister Brown may be a happy man. Mr Cameron has not managed to lower the sluice gates in time, before the popularity of the party being drained out.

Meanwhile, having been emboldened by the dwindling fortunes of the rivals – at least, judging by opinion polls - Mr Brown lost no time in cashing in on Mr Cameron’s difficulties. He even went on to say that the economic crisis was far from over while implying the need of an experienced economist of his calibre to fix the job at the top. At the same time, Mr Brown knows very well that he can draw little comfort from the opinion polls, as the Labour party is not going to get an outright victory.

Mr Brown, however, can breathe a sigh of relief due to the fact that no rival is lurking around in the distant political landscape against him in his own party. The narrowing gap among opinion polls ideally works in his favour; at least, he can keep the voices about his leadership and the style of governance among worried labour parliamentarians at bay, now that he managed to put them behind him and move on.

In this context, the warm reception meted out to Nicholas Sarkozy, the French President is seen here as a new Brown strategy – to win friends at international level while impressing a global audience.

President Sarkozy, who is married to Carla Bruni, the ex-super model, is a politician with his own problems. The French press has reported his problems on marital front which are neither trivial nor ‘rantings’, as Mr Sarkozy loves them to be known. It is serious stuff, especially when France tries to come out of the economic stagnation, due not only to recession but also to the stubbornly powerful work force. Adding insult to injury, he is bracing himself for a huge blow at the regional elections due very soon.

The hugs exchanged by Mr Brown and Mr Sarkozy at the doorstep of No 10 Downing Street, clearly show the need to show the solidarity between the two, despite being at two diametrically opposing camps in terms of political views. They fired the first salvo of the uneasy union by criticising the American government for intervening to win back defence contracts for Boeng over European rivals. Mr Sarkozy’s approval of Mr Brown, a socialist, over Mr Cameron, a centre-rightist may have disappointed the hire echelons of the Conservative party.

However, playing the French card is not good for either party, given the bad blood that exists between the two nations for centuries. However, the warm reception received by Mr Sarkozy, especially in the absence of his spouse who once famously said that she was someone who could easily be bored with monogamy, may have addressed the issue of loneliness to some extent. The two parties can agree on the delivery of that noble service.

Political pundits haven’t accounted for the pre-poll setback suffered by the Conservatives. Some guess that the proposed public spending cuts may have frightened the public. Others disagree; they are of the view that the public don’t really care for what the two major parties say. Apart from that, it is highly unlikely that certain policies of the Conservatives made people change their minds. Uncertainty on many fronts is the last thing that a political party wants, after all those years in opposition.

At present, the enthusiasm among the public for the general election is neither infectious nor ecstatic. No party can afford to see voter-apathy. The prospect of a hung parliament has indeed brought the third biggest party on the land, the Liberal Democrats, to stardom. Its leader, Nick Clegg has instantly become one of the most sought-after players in the political playing field. The indications are that he is going to hold the key to determine the next government.

Comes with the stardom are numerous challenges. Mr Clegg has not made clear his intentions if and when a hung parliament becomes reality.

Nor has he got the courage to rule out a coalition with one of the two main contenders. In this context, whatever he says or does between now and the general election has the potential to polarize his party into two distinct camps – liberals and conservatives. He knows how suicidal that scenario is, as far as his position as the leader of the party is concerned.

The developments in the British politics are closely watched in one of its former colonies, Sri Lanka, despite their own risks and challenges at the general election of their county.

One thing that the Sri Lankans certainly focus on may be the post of the British Foreign Secretary. “Will it be Mr Billiband or Mr Hague?” they may wonder during turbulent times. When uncertainty descends upon the corridors of power, the shadowy figure that may stand up in a corner may resemble a parliamentarian by the name Simon Hughes. If it comes to that, it will be an interesting development for political scientists to watch and comment on for years to come.

- Asian Tribune -