Pakistan lobbying hard for n-deal akin to India-US pact

In a development of serious concern to India, Pakistan seems to have lobbied successfully for a civilian nuclear deal with the US, akin to the one that Washington has with New Delhi.

The Barack Obama administration has indicated it is open to Islamabad's plea for a civilian nuclear deal, notwithstanding continued disquiet about Pakistan's bonafides on the nuclear front.

The first indication of a possible policy shift by US, which had till now rejected Pakistan's entreaties for a nuclear deal, came in an interview the US ambassador to Islamabad, Anne Patterson, gave to a Pakistani-American journal in which she said the two sides were going to have "working level talks" on the subject during a strategic dialogue on March 24.

Patterson confirmed the claim of her Pakistani counterpart in Washington Hussain Haqqani, which were initially denied, that the two sides had had some initial discussions on the subject.

Acknowledging that earlier US "non-proliferation concerns were quite severe", she said attitudes in Washington were changing. "I think we are beginning to pass those and this is a scenario that we are going to explore," she told a LA-based Pakistani journal.

This development comes even as two eminent American atomic experts have claimed that Pakistan is estimated to have more nuclear warheads than India. The two Asian neighbors along with China are increasing their arsenals and deploying weapons at more sites. While Pakistan is estimated to possess 70-90 nuclear weapons, India is believed to have 60-80, claims Robert S Norris and Hans M Kristensen in their latest article ,'Nuclear Notebook: Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2009'.

The article published in the latest issue of 'Bulletin of the Atomic Science' claimed that Beijing, Islamabad and New Delhi are quantitatively and qualitatively increasing their arsenals and deploying weapons at more sites, yet the locations are difficult to pinpoint.

For example, no reliable public information exists on where Pakistan or India produces its nuclear weapons, it said. "Whereas many of the Chinese bases are known, this is not the case in Pakistan and India, where we have found no credible information that identifies permanent nuclear weapons storage locations," they said.

"Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not believed to be fully operational under normal circumstances; India is thought to store its nuclear warheads and bombs in central storage locations rather than on bases with operational forces. But, since all three countries are expanding their arsenals, new bases and storage sites probably are under construction," the two nuclear experts said.

On the nuclear deal, another top US official, Af-Pak envoy Richard Holbrooke, was a little cautious. "We're going to listen carefully to whatever the Pakistanis say," he replied. The Pakistani establishment, ahead of a wide-ranging strategic dialogue with US on March 24, has made parity with India, including a civilian nuclear deal, the centerpiece of its ramped-up engagement.

However, there is also the issue of getting such a nuclear deal past the 44-member Nuclear Suppliers Group, which made an exception for India but might find Pakistan demand a bit complicated for quick clearance.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is coming up with a bill of $ 35 billion to Washington for its efforts in the war on terror in what officials from both sides say is the most comprehensive dialogue in their bilateral history.

Holbrooke has endorsed a central role for the Pakistani military at the talks, asking "how can you have a strategic dialogue without including the military?" In a move that has caused some disquiet in Pakistan itself, the country's army chief Pervez Ashfaq Kiyani and spy chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha are members of the delegation, ostensibly led by Pakistan's foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. Kiyani is said to have set the agenda for the talks in preparatory meetings in Pakistan.

Pakistan wants enhanced support for its economy, particularly in the energy sector. Vast swathes of the country are now under 8 to 12 hour power cuts and Islamabad is presenting this as one reason why Washington should offer a civilian nuclear deal to Pakistan similar to the US-India deal.

The US delegation, led by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton includes Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, Deputy Secretary of State Jack Lew, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Neal Wolin, National Security Council Senior Director David Lipton, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Marantis, the Administrator of USAID Raj Shah, Ambassador Anne Patterson and Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy Judith McHale, Under Secretary of Defense Michele Flournoy and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense David Sydney, among others.

- Asian Tribune -