UPFA is comfortable in North and East with Tamils and Muslims

For the first time in the history, Tamils in Sri Lanka have been offered with the rarest opportunity to be part of the Government of Sri Lanka by electing members of parliament representing the ruling grand coalition alliance – United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA).

The ruling UPFA under the leadership of the President Mahinda Rajapaksa has put forward Tamil and Tamil speaking Muslim candidates for Jaffna – 09 seats, Vanni - 06, Trincomalee - 04, Batticaloa – 05 , Digamadulla - 07 and also in some electoral districts in the Up-country where Tamils of the Indian origin are contesting on the ruling party ticket.

It is a foregone conclusion that UPFA wins overwhelmingly in the forthcoming parliamentary elections and the only lingering doubt is whether they would obtain two third majority in 225 member unicameral parliament. Therefore, UPFA is undoubtedly expected to sweep in the East and also in the Up-country electorates.

But the most important electoral districts are identified as Jaffna, the cultural centre of the Tamils and Vanni, which was earlier the stronghold of LTTE, where in the both districts, a total of 15 parliamentary seats are up for grab.

According to the Election Commissioner’s report, in the Jaffna electoral district, there are a total of 721,359 registered voters and there will be 624 polling stations and 13 counting centers. The voting is based on the year 2008 electoral register.

Unfortunately, no general census was conducted in the North after 1981 and the voters register for the North was not revised to reflect the true population of the North.

It is already accepted by all that the total voters of the figure of 721, 359 is an inflated one and does not reflect the actual voters in the District.

It is expected that there are a maximum of 250,000 voters only in the district. These voters are expected vote to elect 09 Members of Parliament.

At present candidates are contesting from Akila Ilankai Tamil Congress, Democratic National Allaince led by former Army Commander Sarath Fonseka, Democratic Unity Alliance, Eelavar Democratic Front, Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchchi (Tamil National Allaiance), Left Liberation Front, Okkoma Wasiyo Okkoma Rajawaru Sanvidanaya, Pathmanabah Eelam Revolutionary Liberation Front, Socialist Equality Party, Tamil United Liberation Front, Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal, United National Party, United Socialist Party. A total of 15 registered political parties and 12 independent groups have put forward 324 candidates to contest for 09 parliamentary seats.

In the last 2004 parliamentary general elections, the TNA candidates contested in the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchchi as proxy of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. In that elections TNA convincingly won 08 seats and Douglas Devananda of the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party won the lone seat in the Jaffna electoral district.

It was alleged that LTTE cadres used terror tactics and stuffed the ballot boxes to manage the victory of the TNA candidates.

Today the TNA is in disarray. Out of the eight TNA ex-parliamentarians only Mavai S. Senathirajah and Suresh K.Premachandran are in the TNA. N. Srikantha and M.K. Sivajilingham are contesting in the National Left Front led by Dr. Wickramabahu Karunaratna, Gajendrakumar Ponnampalam, Pathmini Sithamparanathan and the person who polled the highest preferential vote in the last parliamentarary election Selvarajah Kajendran were denied the candidatures in the TNA, are contesting in the All Ceylon Tamil Congress.

The ground situation in the Jaffna electoral district is still very fluid and so no clear indication has so far emerged.

It is said that as the Tamil voters remains undecided and it is hard to speculate on the outcome of the polling on 06 April.

However, there is a clear fluctuation of mindsets in the midst of the Tamil voters, which is presently felt very clearly. In the last Presidential election, the voters in Jaffna read the pattern and the trend wrongly and were misled by the TNA leadership and they bet on a wrong horse. They overwhelming voted for Sarath Fonseka, the failed candidate who failed to come even closer to the water hole to quench its thirst.

Now it has dawned on them that for the next six years Mahinda Rajapaksa will remain President of Sri Lanka and by strengthening his hands only Tamils of Jaffna will be able to enjoy the political dividend that has come after the defeat of the LTTE , democratic freedom that the people has attained in the district after the defeat of LTTE, the future development of the district, good governance and the other opportunities. They are thinking it is indeed wrong to adopt belligerent policies which has failed to bring any results in the past three decades, other than killings and destructions.

The people in the North have suffered a lot under the jackboots of Prabhakaran and his men and it is said that they will not allow another opportunity to create another Prabhakaran to phantomise the people in the future.

Even the TNA publicly has announced that they have dropped their Tamil Eelam demand and they are now for a United Sri Lanka.

Therefore it is beginning to dawn on the Tamil voters in the Jaffna district that they are now not left with any Tamil nationalism choices, therefore Tamils may choose between the TNA and UPFA candidates.

Available reports emerging from the Jaffna electoral district clearly reveals that ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance will clearly win a maximum 04 and a minimum of 03 parliamentary seats out the nine available in the district.

The UPFA in the Jaffna district is led by the indomitable Douglas Devananda, the leader of the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party. He is the Minister with Cabinet status in the Rajapkasa’s Government.

Douglas Devananda is a maestro in the election campaigning. Even in the 2004 parliamentary elections the LTTE had its sway and dumped the ballot boxes, but Douglas Devananda managed to win a seat.

Therefore, Douglas the only Member of Parliament who was always with the people of Jaffna, working tirelessly for them even during the time LTTE was controlling Jaffna through their terror tactics. He knows the nook and corner of the Jaffna electoral district and the people has developed a love and hate relationship with ‘Douglas’.

As said earlier UPFA will easily win 3 seats and the 4th one might go to the Muslim candidate of the UPFA, if in case Muslims votes are not divided.

In the meantime the TNA might win a minimum of four and a maximum of five seats.

In case the UPFA and the TNA failed to win the maximum seats mentioned here, there may be two seats available, one each for All Ceylon Tamil Congress and one for the Left Liberation Front where Srikantha and Sivajilingham are contesting.

It is highly unlikely other parties in the fray might have any chance of winning any seat in the elections,

- Asian Tribune -