West Flexes Military Muscle against Iran

The rapidly-evolving conflict between Iran and the West in the Strait of Hormuz appears to have certainly gone past the sabre-rattling phase of the so-called psychological warfare.

Since there is no sign of de-escalating the crisis, we can assume that it is well on course to enter one of the most decisive phases of the whole saga – the nationally-important face-saving phase.

Iran, which claimed to have test-fired two medium range missiles, was in a pretty buoyant mood at the dawn of the New Year, after the USS John C Stennis, one of the biggest aircraft carriers in the US Navy, left the Gulf abruptly. “"We advise and insist that this warship not return to its former base in the Persian Gulf," said Brigadier General Ataollah Salehi, Iran's armed forces chief, while adding, "we don't have the intention of repeating our warning, and we warn only once." Iran, meanwhile, wound up the war games that spanned 10 days by firing the missiles in order to elevate the whole drama to its climax.

Iran, very badly hit by a new wave of sanctions imposed by the EU and the US, left with very little choice to make in the face of ‘tightning snooze’: its currency had a freefall a few days ago – which later recovered; its foreign exchange will suffere immensely in the coming months when the sanctions start biting; the rise in unemployment among its relatively-young population will be troublesome; the inevitable rapid increase in food prices may turn even the most loyal followers of the regime somewhat uneasy when things get nastier.

Since nearly 20% of world’s oil supply passes through the troubled strait, the West cannot afford to take the threat lightly. The US Fifth Fleet, based in Baharian, seems to take the threat seriously by strengthening its strategic assests – much to the annoyance of the Iranians, of course. Britain, meanwhile, is sending HMS Daring, its latest destroyer, a $2billion vessel – equipped with the most sophisticated radar system in the world; the vessel is said to be capable of detecting multiple threats in the form of missiles or aircrafts simultaneously.

The Iranainas responded with the announcement of a second military exercise. Accoriding to a senior Iranian navy commander, the next one would be ‘different’ from the previous one. However, he stopped short of spelling it out. Some Iranian officials, meanwhile, branded the previous naval exercise as just a mock game while contradicting the very military hirecahy of the Reuplican Guard.

Iran knows it can rely on Russia, if the conflict escalates. In addition, it has turned to like-minded Latin American leaders for support, especailly Hugo Chavez, the Venizulan President. However, political commentators scratch their heads about Iranian intentions for a military confrontation with the West – and against all odds!

Iran’s stubborn refusal to disclose its Nuclear ambitions does very little to dampen the temperature. The impact on the Iranainas by the sanctions will become harsher in the coming days; the global economic crisis can only make things worse for the Iranians.

If there is a let-up in the conflict, the world can breathe a collective sigh of relief.

Otherwise, there is a strong possiblilty of oil price reaching a dangerously-high level, which in turn will sound death knell for any economic recovery. At the top of the list of early casualties, lies a chain of airlines, which struggle to survive even when the oil price stays at $100 a barrel – the current level.

- Asian Tribune -