Romney triumphs: Gingrich in it for the long haul

Mitt Romney triumphed easily in Florida coming through with his best debate performance of the Republican primary season. Most analysts believed that Romney carpet-bombed his way with an explosive advertising blitzkrieg matched by wielding near-unlimited financial resources.

Gingrich however, vouched he is defiantly in it for the long haul—all the away to the Convention. However, he may need to woo the party's populist wing more effectively in order to regain his momentum judging by the latest national polls, more so, with Romney outspending Gingrich over one to four.

Romney made certain of a double-digit win with a combined outlay of over $ 14 million on TV and radio ads in Florida including Romney Super-PAC Ads, compared to Gingrich's miniscule outlay of $ 4 million in a state with ten media markets. The current landscape of the Republican race clearly indicates that Romney dominates in money and mechanics, while Gingrich has a slight edge in message.

Having erupted his way to a good victory in South Carolina, Gingrich was forced to defend his Congressional career ending in 1998 not as a generally acclaimed success but as the acrimonious firestorm over ethics and personal relations. Yet, a section of the Republican electorate craving for red meat, seemed to welcome Gingrich’s continuous gusts of anti-Obama rhetoric compared to Romney’s puff of air. Some believe Gingrich to be the tough hombre that the party needed going against President Obama in the October debates.

For many Republican voters, defeating Obama is the most important issue in the campaign, and emotions often sway primaries. Republicans seem to want someone they are confident would shred Obama in a head-to-head matchup. Romney fans countered that Gingrich is a treacherous practitioner of compromise, as proved by the Clinton years. They slammed him as one of the most haughty, grandstanding, politicians, whose fussy posturing professions defiled the national discourse.

Tea Party and ideological purity

The Tea Party movement, somewhat subdued than a year ago, continued to exert pressure against political compromise that undermined ideological purity. Romney’s Mormonism ---may dampen some Republicans’ enthusiasm this election--remains an issue rarely discussed openly.

Gingrich’s energized and contagious revival made his spontaneous success seemed not far-fetched. This is being challenged by others stating that that for all the fuss, Romney retains a firm upper hand in the Republican race as it moves into a protracted battle to win 1,144 delegates by June.

Romney signaled that he would step up heat on Gingrich’s background as a Washington “insider” and one who made money from the home mortgage titans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “There’s no question Newt Gingrich made his living as a Washington insider and influence-peddler,” Romney has repeatedly stated.

Romney also focused on immigration. “Newt Gingrich pandered to a community that wants amnesty, recalling how he voted for it in Congress and believes that one should get amnesty after 20-to-25 years in the U.S. I honor legal immigration but feel we should secure our borders first and end illegal immigration. Permitting amnesty only encourages illegal immigration to continue.”

Electability argument

The arguments of electability continue to dominate the debates in Florida. Romney is on the ballot in all states, while Gingrich is not. He faces far friendlier terrain in February as Nevada and Michigan, which he won four years ago hold their primaries. While advisers to Romney believe that he will ultimately fare well in a head-to-head matchup with Obama, Gingrich seemed favoured by many as a good debating match against the president

For the most part, we may see Gingrich delivering a tirade against Obama and repeating the same distinctive riffs he does about his incompetence. He will also make use of the usual charge of flip-flop against Romney. Some recent national polls showed Gingrich better matched against Obama than Romney by few points.

It is too early to predict the ultimate outcome as there are 46 primaries still to be counted. The general scenario was described by one analyst thus: Although the nomination is controlled more by delegate counts, and less literally by rank-and-file voter preference. It might become a negotiated settlement especially if two strong candidate butt heads and the party elite, such as elected officials, major donors and the partisan news media, among others, come into the nominating process.

It is obvious that a fundamental change has occurred marked by a temporary shift in the rise of candidates as seen by the four primaries so far. It is especially salient in this year’s Republican race. One observer noted: elite support and the ground game do not matter as much as usual. Instead, success is more idiosyncratic: personalities matter a lot, and nominations are determined based primarily on momentum and news media coverage.

So we are watching a more chaotic primary scene. Voters change their preferences from primary to primary and momentum changes as the fear that someone less electable would be chosen. Polling also changes from week to week with the widespread notion that chances of nominating an “unelectable” or nontraditional candidate was high.

Gingrich was facing the charge that he tended to sound irresponsible at times while he countered that the excessive wealth of Romney may be a damper when facing Obama in November, That basic pattern, in fact, has played out multiple times during the GOP campaign, with nervous party high-ups pressurizing candidates showing momentum but not to their liking, labeling them as unworthy for the nomination. It is obvious that Romney and Gingrich would trade attacks through a drawn-out, virtually momentum-less primary season – one reminiscent of Hillary/Obama primary race of 2008.

The other two contenders, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, who were unimpressive in Florida have moved to others states to continue their quests. The next chapter in the campaign begins almost immediately, with seven contests in February, starting with the Maine and Nevada caucuses on Saturday. Caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota, along with a nonbinding caucus in Missouri later on before a 17-day break in the action. Primaries in Arizona and Michigan close the month on Feb. 28.

Romney appears to hold an advantage in the February contests, which include several states that he won four years ago, but Gingrich could find friendlier terrain, especially in Southern states like Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma, in the “Super Tuesday” primaries on March 6 when 11 states poll.

- Asian Tribune –

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