By M Rama Rao, India Editor, Asian Tribune
New Delhi, 14 May (Asiantribune.com): Now that Indian electorate has delivered and sealed its verdict, guessing game has begun on who would be the next prime minister. The bookies are rooting for Manmohan Singh for the top job and are putting the odds against BJP strong man L K Advani though exit polls have put the Congress only slightly ahead of its rival BJP. Several other leaders like Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh, and Mayawati are also said to toying with plans to enter the PM race.
Both parties are projected to fall short of the half way mark to form a single party government in 545 member lower house of Parliament. (Two of these seats are filled by nomination of Anglo-Indians).
‘Times Now’ television’s exit poll gave Congress 154 seats and its alliance, UPA, 198 seats. For the BJP, its count is 142 seats and its alliance, NDA 183 seats. CNN-IBN television projected 185-205 seats to the UPA, 165 to 185 to the NDA.
The Communists are projected to fare very poorly in their strong citadels namely West Bengal and Kerala and end up with some 30 seats, down from 60 plus in the outgoing Parliament. If this indeed is going to be the final picture, it will result in Comrades not able to play the King maker’s role they have been angling for and also a requiem for a government of the Third Front, they have cobbled together with some regional parties.
CPI-M chief honcho Prakash Karat immediately rubbished the exit polls. He echoed the general perception that the exit polls in India create monetary myths. At the end of last general election in 2004, the exit polls created excitement by putting the BJP in the drivers’ seat but the actual result resulted in loss of shine for the BJP.
Counting of votes will be taken up nationwide on Saturday, May 16. Most results are expected to be in by afternoon as voting was done through electronic voting machines.
Congress and the BJP leaders are holding strategy sessions on Thursday on how to woo new allies and keep in good humour old allies. Sonia Gandhi, the Congress chief has spoken to Lalu Prasad Yadav, the head of Bihar centric Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Lalu is Sonia ally but differences have cropped up during electioneering.
Congress leaders have also opened lines of communication with Samajwadi party of Mulayam Singh Yadav, his rival Bahujan Samajwadi Party of Mayawati and even AIADMK of Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi of DMK. Both Mulayam and Karunanidhi are projected by exit polls to do poorly and this has made Congress strategists to look for new faces in the UPA.
A poll conducted by India TV and UTV Business has given 26-32 seats to the BSP. That many seats would propel Mayawati into tough negotiations and even make her harbour prime ministerial ambitions.
Congress is also in touch with its Left parties, who were its outside supporters till the N-deal with the US happened in 2008. ‘All possibilities are open. We must not forget we worked with the left for four-and-a-half years’, senior Congress leader Kamalnath, who is also the minister for commerce, said even as TV channels were putting out exit poll results on Thursday night.
Since the Left is allergic to BJP, it is possible that they would end up supporting the Congress in government formation to keep ‘communalists out’ and to ‘strengthen secularist forces’, according to many commentators. ‘The Congress may squeak in’, they say.
Whoever emerges as the single largest party whether it is Congress or the BJP has the fair chance of garnering allies and forming the new government. By tradition, Indian President gives the first opportunity at government formation to the leader of the single largest party.
Delhi political scene is expected to hot up on Saturday to match with the sizzling heat outside the air-conditioned homes. That is when J. Jayalalithaa, AIADMK chief will descend on the capital from her Pose Garden residence in Chennai for a hard bargain.
-Asian Tribune -
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