By M Rama Rao, India Editor, Asian Tribune
New Delhi, 16 May (Asiantribune.com): Counting of votes in India’s marathon elections will take place on Saturday, May 16. By afternoon, the winner will be known though the counting centres are spread throughout the country.
While NDTV exit polls has put the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) as the front runner, rival channel, CNN-IBN has come up with some ‘shocking’ findings that has brought smile to the Congress and the DMK.
‘Raiding on the crest of a DMK sweep in Tamil Nadu, the Congress led alliance will get 210 – 225 seats. The DMK and its allies could win up to 30 Lok Sabha seats and thus turn upside down all the poll arithmetic’, the CNN-IBN reported Friday night.
If this forecast comes true, it will mean a big setback to Jayalalithaa Jayaram of AIADMK, who is being wooed by Congress and BJP alike to the dismay of the Third Front.
The channel projects 158-173 seats for the Congress, 132-147 seats for the BJP and between 30 and 40 seats for the Left.
Alliance wise, the Congress led UPA is expected to end with anywhere between 210-225 seats. The BJP led NDA will be close behind short by some seats.
While the BJP on its own will get 132- 147 seats, its tally with allies will be somewhere in the 180-195 seat range. The Third Front will end up with 95-110 seats.
Guided by exit polls results, the Congress swung into action early Friday to enlist new allies and keep in good humor old allies. Sonia Gandhi, the party chief, herself, is leading from the front the operation to stitch a viable alliance that will have 272 seats required to cross the half way mark in Parliament. She and her aides have roped in Chiranjivi’s Praja Rajyam Party in Andhra Pradesh, and Navin Patnaik of Biju Janata Dal in Orissa. Congress is also assured of support by old allies Lalu Prasad of Rashtriya Janata Dal and Ram Vilas Paswan of Lok Jana Sakti.
It has not yet opened formal talks with the Samajwadi party of Mulayam Singh Yadav with which it has had a love –hate relationship. Alliance talks with it will depend on the number of seats SP wins. For the time being, both sides have mended their fences publicly with Congress senior Digvijay Singh saying a big sorry to Samajwadi general secretary Amar Singh ‘if I had hurt you with my comments and digs in the heat of campaigning’.
Congress is not so sure of Nationalist Congress Party of Sharad Pawar. The NCP is divided on supporting the Congress. It is piqued at the way the Congress piped it in Meghalaya in forming the government. Local strong man and NCP senior, P A Sangma has cautioned Pawar against any tie-up with Congress. ‘Don’t believe the Cong. It is untrustworthy,’ Sangma told reporters here and said his party would project Pawar as the Prime Ministerial candidate.
Strategy Sessions
Sonia Gandhi and BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate L K Advani have been locked in strategy sessions throughout the day. Pranab Mukherjee, A K Antony, Ghulam Nabi Azad and Ahmed Patel are among the stalwarts at the Gandhi camp. Narendra Modi, Venkaiah Naidu, Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh, Om Prakash Chautala and Sharad Yadav confabulated with Advani. Both camps are trying everything to poach on constituents of Third Front to the dismay of Left parties and the TDP, which are the prime movers of the Front.
Congress is bending backwards to woo JD (U) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is presently with the BJP led NDA. He created a stir on Friday when he declared that his party would support a Federal government which will grant special status to Bihar. And indicating that he is keeping his options open, he skipped a meeting of NDA chief ministers convened in Delhi.
Congress senior Digvijay Singh immediately grabbed the opening and stated that his party always gave a special deal to backward states. But, the BJP has downplayed the Nitish statement.
Left Hopes
One hope the Congress is nurturing is poor show by the Left at the hustings. ‘The Left will be left with lesser number of seats than 2004 and what political maneuvering can they do with that is yet to be seen’, Kapil Sibal told reporters.
The Communists have not lost hope as yet. CPI national secretary D Raja said the efforts of Congress and BJP to woo them shows ‘lust for power’ and ‘desperation’ of both the parties.
He said the Left parties and its allies in the Third Front would hold consultations on May 18 to take a ‘collective decision’ on how to go about in the post poll scenario. ‘As far as our allies are concerned, they are with us. We are talking to them and I cannot foresee any division among us’, CPI leader said.
Raja said the CPI doesn’t want the BJP to take any advantage of emerging situations and at the same time we don’t like a government led by Congress. ‘So, we have considered various pros and cons of the emerging situation’
He is unsure of Jayalalithaa attending the May 18 meeting. About Deve Gowda, he added that the former prime minister would play a key role in the Third Front. ‘Even H D Kumaraswamy told us that despite his meeting with Sonia Gandhi, the JD(S) will be with the Third Front, then why should I doubt’, Raja said
CNN –IBN projection for the Left is that it will survive the Mamata scare in West Bengal. It will be bruised in the process though; this is reflected in the projection of 30-40 seats for the Left tally, down from 59 in the 2004 elections.
Manmohan may resign on Monday
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is likely to resign on Monday to pave the way for formation of a new government. Going by convention, President Pratibha Patil will ask him to continue as caretaker till a new government assumes office.
If the predictions of a badly fractured verdict come true, the President will face tough options in choosing the next Prime Minister. Stability of the government will be the primary criteria in making the selection. That rules out automatic choice of the party, which has emerged as the single largest party but an alliance that can face survive the trust vote in Parliament.
In anticipation of such a contingency, the Congress has started collecting quietly letters of supports from old and new allies alike.
- Asian Tribune -
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